Jerardi: Double advantage for American Pharoah

With Beholder in the hands of a master trainer, it was reasonable to assume that she was going to run right to her best Beyer Speed Figures in the Pacific Classic, not the middling numbers she had been getting when barely trying in easy wins against overmatched females. Well, a 114 Beyer was way better than anything I envisioned.

Wherever it came from, it did not look at all like a fluke. She can cruise to a win Sept. 26 in the Zenyatta Stakes with an irrelevant (in her case) Beyer, but I just can’t wait to see how fast she might run in her next start after that, a race I sincerely hope is the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Embellish the Lace got a 95 Beyer in an optional-claiming win, a 65 when eighth in the Mother Goose, and a 96 when winning the Alabama. The difference? She was loose on the lead in the wins and dueled into submission in the loss. The lesson? Remember any big-figure win earned in circumstances that could be about to repeat.

The Travers looks a lot like the Belmont Stakes to me. The best horse is also the only horse with any early speed. American Pharoah’s Beyers in his eight-race win streak: 101, 101, 100, 105, 105, 102, 105, and 109. It is possible that he could get a really big Beyer here, but I think it unlikely because the potentially moderate pace is not conducive to a fast final time. The hot Haskell Invitational pace set up his lifetime-best Beyer. I feel very confident that the next time Pharoah is in a race with a hot pace, he is going to put up a giant Beyer.

Upstart, Texas Red, and Frosted are all very capable horses, with nine triple-digit Beyers among them. All, however, are at a tactical and talent disadvantage against American Pharoah, a throwback to an age when horses ran often on any kind of track and kept reproducing top form. Kent Desormeaux on Texas Red might have an early decision to make: when to make a run at American Pharoah. Texas Red made an early move in the Jim Dandy Stakes and was able to sustain it. He was not chasing American Pharoah that day. And horses making early runs at Pharoah often pay a big price.

Frosted is the closer most likely to run to his top Beyer form. The horse just does not run bad races.

Upstart ran beautifully in the Haskell but paid for making a run at Pharoah with a late fade, albeit in his first race in three months. He showed his talent last fall with that 102 Beyer in the Champagne. Other than his last-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, which makes no sense, he has never run a bad race.

Keen Ice got a career-best 105 Beyer when second in the Haskell. I think the fast pace helped his close, but I also think he is getting better.

The fight for the bottom half of the exacta should be quite interesting. The big horse might lose again before his career ends, but I don’t think it is in the Travers.

Holy Boss, with Beyers of 100 and 102 in his last two starts, has the perfect stalking style in a King’s Bishop loaded with early speed and is my kind of horse.

Grand Bili and Competitive Edge are both fast enough to be competitive but could get caught up in a meltdown pace.

Watershed was awesome with that 95 Beyer in his debut. This is obviously a giant step up, but the performance was powerful.

Private Zone is also my kind of horse. Entering the Forego, he has nothing but triple-digit Beyers on dirt for a full calendar year, with a high of 110. He also looks like the controlling speed.

The Big Beast obviously loves the Spa, and his 106 Beyer in the Vanderbilt was brilliant. Tony Dutrow is very quietly having an amazing Saratoga meet.

Not sure what to make of Race Day, who had gone 109, 104, 105, and 109 before a total stinker in the Salvator Mile. The race was so bizarre that I would toss it, but I just don’t know if he can catch these top sprinters even if he runs back to those Beyers.

The figures are quite close in the Personal Ensign. I lean slightly to the very consistent Delaware Handicap winner, Sheer Drama, because there is a chance she could get a dream trip behind the speed. Her last five Beyers are 91, 99, 93, 94, and 96.

Stopchargingmaria got a career-best Beyer when winning the Shuvee over Untapable. She obviously loves Saratoga, but I wonder if she has another forward move.

Untapable has only been near her career-best 107 Beyer in the Kentucky Oaks one time in the intervening 15 months. That was the 103 she got in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. In the other seven races, it’s been mostly mid-90s, good enough to win this, but not at the level she reached in her two biggest wins.