Jerardi: Dortmund still looks good, but no cinch

The Kentucky Derby is a much easier betting race for me when I have settled on the winner – Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), and California Chrome (2014). I cashed nicely in two of those years because the bets are much less complicated when the top spot is set, and I am willing to take many more risks when I have great confidence.

If I’m wrong when I have a strong opinion on the winner – Afleet Alex (2005), Lookin At Lucky (2010) – no amount of confidence or risk taking is relevant. I am going to lose.

When I settled on Dortmund in early March, I thought this was going to be like last year. Well, American Pharoah had not run at that point. I still like Dortmund, but there is no way I can be as confident as I was with California Chrome last year. That was one really good horse with a dominating set of speed figures against an inconsistent group who had never run fast. I will play, of course, but I doubt it will be in superfectas because there is a chance that the two Bob Baffert-trained colts could run one-two.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

I thought there was a chance for chaos in the five years when I really fired at the super. The greatest chaos was in 2005, but I did not see it so chaotic that 50-1 Giacomo and 71-1 Closing Argument were going to run one-two.

I see less chance for chaos this year, and I am not certain I have the winner anyway. I do think Dortmund has more ways to win than any horse in the race, but American Pharoah is an incredible talent. I will not feel eliminated if Dortmund has early traffic issues because I have watched the horse overcome obstacles several times. I don’t know what American Pharoah will do if he gets a tough trip, but he might be so fast that he runs himself into a great trip.

And Dortmund does not just have to beat his stablemate. The Florida Derby came up the toughest of the preps, given that Materiality and the ultra-consistent Upstart got 110 and 105 Beyer Speed Figures while finishing 12 1/2 lengths ahead of the others.

Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem has lost just once in five starts. Louisiana Derby winner International Star, one of the few confirmed closers with the form to win if the race sets up correctly, is unbeaten in three starts this year.

Unlike some years, this is an incredibly consistent group. The favorites won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, San Felipe, Santa Anita Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, Blue Grass, Rebel, Arkansas Derby, and Louisiana Derby. Those favorites would be Dortmund, Carpe Diem, American Pharoah, and International Star, if you are keeping score. The second favorite won the Florida Derby, with the winner running second. There simply are not many throw-outs among the top horses either by form or running style.

I have been to every Derby since 1987, so I have a little institutional memory. I can stand corrected on this because I do not remember every year clearly, but I do not remember this many of the top horses coming into the race with such consistent records as 3-year-olds.

I am really looking forward to seeing how this will play out when all of these good horses show up on the same track at the same time. For betting purposes, I much prefer races with a lone standout like Big Brown or California Chrome. This is not that kind of race, at least in my eyes.

Some may think American Pharoah is just so much better that he can be singled on top of trifectas and supers. They might be right, but I think there are too many possibilities. Beyond the obvious horses, there is Frosted, with a career-best race in the Wood Memorial; Mubtaahij, so impressive in the UAE Derby; Firing Line, coming in way under the radar but beaten by just a pair of heads in two races against Dortmund; and Bolo, a horse who is going to be totally ignored at the windows but could be dangerous, especially if there is a pace meltdown.

How the race is going to be run is nearly as interesting as the race itself. Many of the best horses have early speed, but none appears to be a need-the-lead type. I could not wait to get to the Derby last year because I knew I was going to make money. It was just a question of how much. I’m not so sure about the money this year, but I really can’t wait to get to this Derby.