Jerardi: Daredevil won’t have it easy in Swale

My good friend Jeff Siegel told me the other day that since the advent of synthetic surfaces, jockeys have ridden like every race is a grass race, even races on conventional dirt. You do not see nearly as many races where horses are sent hard from the start and the fractions are eye-catching. That lack of pace obviously affects final times and Beyer Speed Figures.

Upstart got a 106 in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Jan. 24. Visually, the horse did not look as dominating in the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 21, even though he finished a clear first before being disqualified. It took almost 48 seconds to run the first half-mile so a big figure was not likely after that. Upstart got a 95. Let’s see what happens next in the Wood Memorial or Florida Derby before we decide if this is the horse that got a 102 as a 2-year-old and a 106 in January or the horse that regressed 11 points last Saturday. I would lean toward the horse with those two triple-digit Beyers.

I loved the ride by Miguel Mena on International Star in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 21. You overcome an outside post by just appearing on the rail when the running is about to get serious. This colt definitely is getting better, but he is not yet a serious Kentucky Derby contender. He got a 90 when winning the Lecomte and a 93 in the Risen Star. That is not going to cut it in two months at Churchill Downs.

So what about Khozan with that 103 when he won his maiden and the 90 when he ran away from that overmatched field last Sunday? Is he Curlin or Verrazano? Can’t wait for the Florida Derby to find out, but it is hard not to get excited.

The Swale at seven furlongs on Saturday actually looks like a race that should have a hot, contested pace. Daredevil obviously is going to be the focus. The colt’s first two starts were off-the-charts impressive, with a 96 in a maiden race in September and then a 107 in the Champagne in early October when he beat Upstart by 2 1/2 lengths. Those starts were both on off tracks.

His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was a disaster, but I would put a line through it. That was a race with a complete pace meltdown. The top four finishers were 11th, 10th, eighth, and seventh after the opening quarter-mile. Any horse near the pace had no chance. Daredevil was not only up close, he was also very wide. He finished last.

That 107 would look like an aberration if Upstart had not come back to prove it was not an aberration. So Daredevil may be that good. Still, with the inside post and all that speed outside of him, this is a tricky spot for Daredevil.

Ready for Rye was beaten as a big favorite in the Spectacular Bid on Jan. 3, but that was his first race in almost three months. He got a 96 when he won a maiden in October and an 88 when second in the Spectacular Bid, a race that has proven to be very strong. Winner Barbados came back to win the Hutcheson and got a 93 Beyer. The third-place finisher, It’s Not Me, came back to win the OBS Sprint. I think Ready for Rye, with almost two months to recover from a hard race, is going to run huge, perhaps getting up near 100 on the Beyer scale.

X Y Jet has never run a poor race and is definitely going to be part of the pace, but the five seconds in eight races are a concern unless you are just using him as a key in exactas and trifectas. The Beyers are competitive, but he may have reached his ceiling.

Souper Colossal is intriguing. This colt was good enough to get an 87 Beyer when dominating the Sapling on Aug. 31 at Monmouth Park. You see a 2-year-old get that kind of number so early it is a suggestion more could be there. He was up top right in the middle of that crazy Breeders’ Cup Juvenile pace and hung in until deep stretch. His 3-year-old debut was a win in a grass race. I think he is going to make a big forward move, but that may not be enough if Daredevil runs anything like he did in his first two starts.