Nyquist has never lost and has run really fast exactly once. I admit to being confused because I love watching this colt run, I like his toughness, and I admire his versatility. But the Beyer Speed Figure of 94 for his win in the Florida Derby does not give me the confidence to feel really comfortable with the Kentucky Derby favorite as he heads for Churchill Downs. Perhaps this is one of those horses who runs just fast enough to win. I am keeping an open mind, but I was hoping for a 104 Beyer.I was thinking that Mohaymen could run faster when needed. Wrong. Put under real pressure for the first time, the colt could not even come close to his previous series of 95 Beyers. The lesson? Beware of big favorites without big numbers.The Santa Anita Derby looks like the strongest of the three Kentucky Derby preps on Saturday. Danzing Candy got that 100 Beyer last out in the San Felipe Stakes and is clearly improving, but how is he going to do without the clear lead that Iron Rob seems likely to deny him? I don’t think Danzing Candy goes better than 100 under that circumstance and is likely to go worse, perhaps much worse.Mor Spirit should get a great setup. He never runs a bad race and has improved his Beyers (85, 88, 93, 97) in four straight races. This could be the big Beyer on the road to Kentucky.I did not love the trip Exaggerator got in the San Felipe, but the colt tried under difficult circumstances. With a hotter, contested pace and the opportunity for a better-timed ride, there is no reason to think that this talented colt (98, 96 Beyers in his 2016 races) won’t fire hard again.Shagaf may be the favorite in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. I would take a stand against the unbeaten colt, who has a Beyer series of 88, 78, and 87. He might be good enough to win, but I will have to see it.Going back to last fall, Matt King Coal, who is making his stakes debut, has a 93, 96, 97 series. How the colt will run if he doesn’t get a clear lead is an interesting question, but the numbers are hard for me to resist.Outwork’s second in the Tampa Bay Derby with a 98 Beyer was a 21-point improvement over his previous win. The improvement could have been the result of getting the lead while going two turns or just a late-winter 3-year-old explosion, which certainly happens.Flexibility went backward in a big way when fourth in the Withers, getting his worst Beyer (85) since his debut. If he had a really big number to come back to and this were a weaker race, I would take a longer look at him. But his best was a 93 in the Remsen behind Mohaymen, a colt whose aura took a major hit last week.Todd Pletcher has two horses in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland coming off 26-point Beyer improvements in non-stakes events. Donegal Moon got a 99 in a Parx allowance, which makes him a major player on the numbers, but that was in a five-horse field when he was 1-2. It’s a far different scenario here, and that 99 is not likely to be repeated. Cards of Stone got a 92 at Aqueduct in a nearly identical situation to Donegal Moon’s at Parx. Don’t expect a repeat there either.Check out Matt King Coal’s race in the Wood Memorial before making a final decision in the Blue Grass on My Man Sam, with his 91 and 95 Beyers. The latter was earned in his second to Matt King Coal in that very fast Aqueduct optional claimer.Songbird faces six fillies in the Santa Anita Oaks on Saturday. They have 23 dirt Beyers among them, and none is as good as any of Songbird’s six Beyers – 84, 85, 90, 99, 88, 93. This is not complicated.If Cathryn Sophia runs like she has been Saturday in the Ashland at Keeneland and Songbird does what she does, it will be an epic Kentucky Oaks on May 6. If the two fillies win Saturday, they would be a combined 12 for 12.First, Cathryn Sophia will have to beat a pair of accomplished fillies in Rachel’s Valentina and Carina Mia. However, Rachel’s Valentina has not run in 5 1/2 months, and Carina Mia in 4 1/2 months. Rachel’s Valentina had a solid but not overwhelming 79, 81, 90 series as a 2-year-old. Carina Mia went 81, 97, 88. That 97 is certainly intriguing, and you know Bill Mott will have the filly ready.Still, Cathryn Sophia has won her four races by a combined 41 1/2 lengths, with Beyers of 92, 94, 91, and 98. She has won from in front and from off the pace. I don’t see any holes in her game, and she has run twice this year. I really want to see Songbird vs. Cathryn Sophia, both unbeaten, on the first Friday of May.