Jerardi: Contention runs deep in Excelsior
There is no way to know what might have happened if Shared Belief had not gotten hurt in last Saturday’s Charles Town Classic. To win, he would have had to beat a track record that Moreno set, so it was not going to be easy under any circumstance. The amazing Moreno got a 105 Beyer Speed Figure, not far from his career-best 109 for his Whitney win last year. You’ve got to love a horse with four wins and $3 million in earnings.
Whiskey Ticket proved that his 91 Beyer when winning his maiden was not a one-shot deal when he came back to win the Illinois Derby and get a 95. I absolutely loved the ride by Martin Pedroza, who was aggressive on the backstretch to put the favored Cross the Line in a tough spot and then blew the race open at precisely the right moment. Bob Baffert is going to have some fun with Whiskey Ticket this summer winning off-brand stakes for 3-year-olds.
The Excelsior might be just a Grade 3 race with a $200,000 purse, but only one of the eight horses has not reached triple digits. Wicked Strong obviously is the marquee horse, and it is equally obvious that he loves Aqueduct, with that 2014 Wood Memorial win and the strong third in the 2013 Remsen. In his second race of 2015, the 4-year-old should run something in the 105 Beyer range, which really should win.
Not quite sure where Turco Bravo got that 104 Beyer in the Stymie, his first win in seven American starts. It certainly is possible that he could repeat that performance, but a regression is more likely.
Cousin Stephen probably won’t be taken seriously because of the 1 1/4-mile distance. That could be a mistake since the horse might be able to set really slow fractions and just keep going.
Micromanage is not terribly consistent, but when he is good, he is really good. The distance obviously is not an issue for a horse who has four triple-digit Beyers in his last 11 races. If this is an “on” day, Micromanage is a major player.
I love horses like Grand Tito in the Miami Mile at Gulfstream Park. His 2015 Beyers, all in graded stakes routes on grass, are 99, 96, 96, and 94. This stakes does not look as tough as those, and any of those four Beyers is good enough to win. Grand Tito has not won this year, but his losses are by a combined four lengths. This really looks like the breakthrough.
I saw Storming Inti in person last year when he was third in the Penn Mile behind the very tough Bobby’s Kitten. He was impressive then without the lead. With a race to get ready, I expect him to be very impressive with the lead in a race with almost no pace. He will have to run a career-best Beyer to win, but circumstances are in his favor.
Inchcape gets a lot of time between races, but his last race, a 98 Beyer when winning an optional claimer, gives him a chance in his first stakes try.
With a potential rail run, Middleburg, coming off a career-best 94 Beyer in his 2015 debut and with an incredibly consistent race record since a debut that went nowhere, is a definite speed-figure contender.
There are three ways to look at the Last Tycoon at Santa Anita.
Power Foot is absolutely the most logical winner. The 10-furlong distance is no issue, and the consecutive 97 Beyers speak to his current form.
Sometimes, logic gets trumped by race shape. Joes Blazing Aaron is always the speed. Forget his last race, where the fractions were insane for a 12-furlong race. This horse has regularly put up Beyers in the mid- to high-90s. And everybody seems to like him. Since last July, the horse has been claimed for $50,000, $62,000, and $62,000 again. Lone speed has been dangerous forever. It remains so.
If you don’t think Joes Blazing Aaron is going to last, consider that Abbey Vale should get first run on the closers. Loved his race March 27, when he chased, opened up a big lead, and held on nicely with a 96 Beyer. That is my favorite in-race move and often suggests a nice run of success for any horse who does it.