Jerardi: Bolo, Lady Eli logical but no locks in Belmont Derby, Oaks
The Belmont Derby looks like the 3-year-old male grass version of last week’s Mother Goose, a race where 90 Beyer Speed Figures are hard to find. The Mother Goose, by the way, was won with an 85 Beyer.
The form of the two European shippers is not easy to decipher, but it is not going to take a great horse to win since the Americans are mostly Beyer works in progress.
Bolo, with a 92 when winning at 1-5 over four horses May 29 at Santa Anita, is the only horse to hit 90 on the scale. The colt has gotten faster in each of his grass races and was talented enough to run third to Dortmund in two Kentucky Derby preps. And with West Coast rider Rafael Bejarano, Bolo could very well control this race with his early speed.
The Penn Mile was wild, with the first eight horses within two lengths at the finish. Force the Pass got up to win it with an 88 Beyer. Granny’s Kitten was just behind in third. That winning figure has held up nicely, with My Point Exactly (85 at Penn) coming back to win a Gulfstream Park stakes with an 84. Gallery came back to get an 83, same as at Penn. Comanche Storm got an 80 after getting an 81 at Penn.
No one has run back from the Pennine Ridge at Belmont Park, run on the same day as the Penn Mile. The top three from that race, won by Divisidero with an 87, are in this race, as is Closing Bell, an impressive maiden winner with an 84 for Bill Mott.
Other than Bolo, the Americans all look the same, so trips likely will be critical unless one or both of the Europeans is the real thing.
I would like Lady Eli in the Belmont Derby, so I certainly like her in the Belmont Oaks. She was good enough to get a 96 Beyer as a 2-year-old when dominating the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Forget her 85 when winning the Wonder Again. The figure was a product of the absurd pace she sat behind that day. If a horse can win easily by a half-length, she won easily to stay unbeaten in five starts.
This is a far stronger field than the Belmont Derby, with two very good-looking Europeans, one trained by Aidan O’Brien and the very impressive Southern California shipper Spanish Queen, who is a neck from being unbeaten in four starts and recorded Beyers of 97 and 96 in her last two starts, a Grade 2 and then a Grade 1 stakes. She looks quite legitimate, so this is a real test for Lady Eli, a filly with rare ability and a European burst of speed in the stretch.
Private Zone has twice run Bayern into the ground this year and was a brilliant third in the Metropolitan Mile after being hounded the whole way through crazy fractions that eventually precipitated a meltdown. The horse has eight triple-digit Beyers (with a career-best of 110) in his last nine dirt races. There is some other heat in the Belmont Sprint Championship, but when Private Zone is in the race, he is generally the speed, especially with the last of a dying breed on top, an actual sending rider in Martin Pedroza.
The Dwyer is fascinating with the return of Texas Red, the potential of Blofeld (fast enough for an unbeaten 2-year-old campaign with an 88, 94, and 93), a horse from Parx (Hollywood Angel) with a 100 Beyer, the improving Tommy Macho (76, 87, 95 Beyers), and Speightster, who is perfect in two starts, with Beyers of 90 and 98.
Texas Red got a 104 Beyer in the BC Juvenile, but that was aided by pace and almost certainly an aberration. Still, the colt was good enough to get a 93 when third to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah last fall at Santa Anita, and any horse who even breathes the same air as American Pharoah must be respected.
Can’t wait to see how this race is run, which of the horses emerges, and how fast they run.
Tonalist is going to be favored in the Suburban and certainly is the most likely winner on his favorite surface. His last four Beyers – 106, 105, 111, and 105 – are a series of numbers you just don’t see much anymore.
Remember, Coach Inge was the horse who ran just a bit slower than American Pharoah at 1 1/2 miles on Belmont Stakes Day. He got a 102 to American Pharoah’s 105. It will be interesting to see if Coach Inge’s form holds up in this spot.