Jerardi: Beyer Figures point to Ready for Rye in Spectacular Bid

When you analyze any race through the Beyer Speed Figure prism, there are a few questions that must always be asked:

1. What Beyer will it take to win the race?

2. Which horses have earned the figure in the past?

3. What are the styles of the horses in this race, and how is that likely to impact which horses can run back to their best Beyers?

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With the caveat that 3-year-old races early in the year are tricky because of the absence of data and the potential for dramatic improvement by horses who are growing up (and sometimes blowing up) overnight, let’s analyze the Spectacular Bid at Gulfstream Park and the Jerome at Aqueduct, both to be run Saturday.

Ready for Rye jumps off the page of the Spectacular Bid with the 96 Beyer earned when he got an easy lead and won his maiden by seven lengths Oct. 11 at Belmont Park. If the horse runs back to that figure, the others are running for second. That race was run in the slop, which normally would give me pause, but all the other data strongly suggest that Ready for Rye is going to run huge again.

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The horse comes out of one of the strongest maiden races of the year. Mawthooq, who ran second, came back to win his maiden by 10 lengths Nov. 26 at Aqueduct and get an 83 Beyer, five points better than the 78 he got when second to Ready for Rye. Furyofthenorsemen, third to Ready for Rye, won his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths Nov. 10 at Aqueduct and got an 86 Beyer, 22 points better than his 64 on Oct. 11. Unlock the Glory, who was last behind Ready for Rye, beaten 31 1/2 lengths, won his maiden at Parx on Dec. 2, getting a 62 Beyer, 47 points better than on Oct. 11.

The data are screaming that Ready for Rye’s 96 is absolutely legitimate. The issue is that there is other early speed. What happens if Ready for Rye is hooked and they go too fast too soon?

One of those speed horses is It’s Not Me, a completely different horse since being claimed for $16,000 by high-percentage trainer Jorge Navarro on Oct. 20. The horse’s first four Beyers were 54, 18, 31, and 59. He won a $35,000 claimer in his first race after the claim and got an 83 Beyer. Then he won the Nov. 29 Buffalo Man Stakes and got an 84.

The third-place horse in the Buffalo Man, Bluegrass Singer, came back to win a one-mile race by 4 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream on Dec. 17, getting a 90 Beyer, seven points better than his 83 on Nov. 29. The fourth horse in the Buffalo Man, X Y Jet, came back to run second in the Dec. 27 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, earning an 88 Beyer, 16 points better than he got Nov. 29.

Toasting Master also has serious speed, having gotten the lead in each of his three races. His last two figures of 85 and 84 give him a chance.

Morgans Harbour is intriguing. He finished a solid second to Mr. Jordan in the Nov. 8 Juvenile Sprint at Gulfstream Park West and got an 81. Then he tired to sixth after a tough trip going a mile in the Smooth Air, a race won by Mr. Jordan with a 97 Beyer, legitimizing the Juvenile Sprint. If it was the distance that got Morgans Harbour and there is a pace meltdown Saturday, you have a live longshot with a chance.

The 81 that Barbados got in his maiden win at Keeneland was earned in the slop, but he did pass horses and did run away from the field.

Even though the Jerome’s purse is twice as much as the Spectacular Bid’s, the Beyers indicate that the stronger field is in south Florida, with one exception.

El Kabeir was good enough to get a 93 in his second start when winning his maiden at Saratoga. Throw out the Champagne in the slop, and his two route races are excellent, an 84 when second to the unbeaten Blofeld in the Nashua and a 94 when winning the Kentucky Jockey Club. This is an improving colt making his 3-year-old debut. He is a figure standout proven at two turns. No reason to think he won’t run somewhere in the 90s, and that is going to win this race.

Nasa caught a flier in the Pennsylvania Nursery at Parx and got a career-best 86 Beyer. Trainer John Servis has always been high on this son of Smarty Jones, but the 86 was earned under optimal conditions in a sprint. It is not likely that the colt can do any better, except for one thing: There is not much pace, so if he clears the field, he could get that 86 again.

Ackeret has won 2 of 3 with winning Beyers of 82 and 86, the last at Parx on Dec. 16, when he won by 5 3/4 lengths. Will that middle move that has been so effective sprinting be there going two turns? That is a hard call with no obvious answer.