Jerardi: Beyer bar set high for Whitney

American Pharoah got a career-best 109 Beyer Speed Figure in the Haskell Invitational, which leads to two intriguing questions: How high could he have gone on the Beyer scale, and how high will he go?

During the Triple Crown, American Pharoah was not in any races with a fast pace, so it was very difficult for him to earn a Beyer commensurate with his true ability.

In the Haskell, American Pharoah stalked a very serious pace, so the setup for a big number was there. Obviously, American Pharoah could have gotten a faster final time and thus a higher figure. I think if Victor Espinoza had asked the colt for anything in the stretch, we are looking at approximately a 116 Beyer. So, I think if he gets another hot pace in any of the races still to be run, a 120 is possible.

Check out the tape from the Belmont Stakes and Haskell, and then compare the stress level on American Pharoah. I do not see much difference, so we have a horse who looks the same running fast or slow, a horse apparently capable of just about anything.

The Whitney at Saratoga looks like the Breeders’ Cup Classic without American Pharoah. This is the strongest field assembled for any race this year. It is going to take somewhere between a 108 and a 110 Beyer to win. Six of the 10 horses have done that kind of number.

Honor Code got a career-best 112 in the Metropolitan Handicap, but that was an outlier likely due to a pace meltdown. This looks like an entirely different setup, and I think it very unlikely that Honor Code comes close to that 112.

Tonalist has gone 107, 105, 111, 105, and 106 in his last five, incredibly consistent Beyers during an increasingly inconsistent era. His two 2014 Saratoga numbers are far off the form he demonstrated previously and has shown since, so that has to be considered.

Noble Bird clearly has figured it out. Starting in mid-March, the colt has gone 87, 93, 103, and 108, when he held off Lea in the Stephen Foster Handicap. Does he have another forward move? I doubt it, but a Foster Handicap repeat would give him first run on the deep closers and a major chance.

Liam’s Map got that career-best 112 in a Gulfstream Park stakes in December, but that really seems like an aberration. If he gets loose, I give him a big chance to repeat the 106 he got in June.

I think Liam’s Map has a little more natural speed than the Saratoga-loving Moreno, but not so much more that he is unlikely to get pressure at some stage. Moreno won this race last year with a 109 Beyer, but he is at his absolute best when able to set moderate fractions on a clear lead, a scenario unlikely to happen here.

Lea’s last four American dirt races resulted in figures of 114, 106, 110, and 108. There is no reason to think he is not going to fire. The problem for Lea and all the other contenders is that so many horses are capable of such strong Beyers that even a terrific effort and an excellent figure might not be enough.

The Test at Saratoga is a very unusual speed-figure test. Three fillies arrive off lifetime-best Beyers that each came without much warning. And then you have last year’s 2-year-old filly champ, Take Charge Brandi, making her first start since January, with a performance history much better than her speed figures.

Cavorting got a 100 Beyer on June 5. She showed real promise last summer with Beyers of 80 and 89 in her first two starts, so a triple-digit Beyer 10 months later is hardly unprecedented. Still, those two awful performances in October and February confuse the issue.

By the Moon got a 92 Beyer when a close second to Curalina in the Acorn. Curalina has since confirmed the figure. By the Moon, also an accomplished 2-year-old, appears to have come back to that form after several less-than-inspiring performances.

So You Say cleared the field in a first-level allowance and got a 98. Easy leads and that kind of figure will be harder to come by in this spot.

Take Charge Brandi never got higher than an 87 in her 2-year-old season, which ended with three graded stakes wins. She actually went slower in her 3-year-old debut, a 78 back in January. She has been out since then with an injury. It is possible for her to make that 3-year-old jump and improve her best 2-year-old Beyer by 10 points. She also could find it hard to get back to her top 2-year-old figures, which will no longer be good enough.