Jerardi: Beware of Bayern, Red Vine in Pacific Classic

The Pizza Man had to get a career-best Beyer Speed Figure to win the Arlington Million, and presto, the amazing 6-year-old did exactly that, getting a 103 and his 15th grass victory. Some horses you can measure by numbers; some horses you only measure by where they finish.

Beholder is obviously even more accomplished than The Pizza Man in her milieu. The great mare poses a similar Beyer quandary in a strong Pacific Classic field. Her very best Beyers, 106 and 105, were accomplished nearly two years ago. Her recent Beyers - 99, 98, 98, and 97 – won’t be good enough to win, but she was winning those races with complete ease, as if more was there.

I think it is going to take at least a 105 to win the race. Beholder can obviously do that, but she is not alone.

Bayern is the Pacific Classic wild card. It looks like he should get a relatively easy lead, and those incredible races from last year did happen. I admit to not having great confidence in Bayern, but I would not be shocked if he clears the field and keeps going. I love watching Rafael Bejarano ride speed horses. He sends them hard and does not look back.

Red Vine might get overlooked, and that could be a mistake. This horse ran 13 times on grass, with middling results. Then, his race came off grass last December, and the horse is 3 for 4 with a second on the main track. His last two Beyers are 106 and 105. The horses who sandwiched him in the Salvator Mile came back to run one-two in the Monmouth Cup, with winner Braedster getting a 105 Beyer. The 5-year-old Red Vine is by Candy Ride, so 1 1/4 miles really should not be an issue.

Catch a Flight has been brilliant in his seven American starts, and his consistent Beyers are very competitive. If you are looking for a horse to key in exotics, this is the one. Catch a Flight is the most likely contender to run to his best form.

Hard Aces beat Hoppertunity and Catch a Flight in the Gold Cup, but I really thought Catch a Flight ran the best race. It was a rare mistimed ride by Gary Stevens, who decided to stay with Beholder. And who can blame him? She has been great. She will have to be even greater to win this.

The 3-year-old fillies were historically slow last year with the very notable exception of Untapable. The field for the Alabama Stakes looks like the same group without Untapable.

If any of the fillies can get to a 95 Beyer in the Alabama, that should be good enough to win. This is just a very slow crowd.

Curalina had not run particularly fast until she ran in her first stakes. She validated the 92 she got in winning the Acorn when she got another 92 in winning the Coaching Club American Oaks after the disqualification of I’m a Chatterbox.

Given her nearly perfect record in five starts, her stalking style, and her improving Beyers, Curalina is the kind of filly you can confidently use as the frame for all kinds of bets, vertical and horizontal. I just wish she was a little faster.

I’m a Chatterbox is having a sensational 2015 with a race-to-race running style you almost never see. She has won races from the front and from way back. There may be a really good horse in recent years with similar lines, but I can’t remember one.

Lovely Maria was lengths off her spring form when badly beaten in the Delaware Oaks. When she won the Ashland and Kentucky Oaks, she got Beyers of 91 and 94. She got just an 82 when fifth in the Delaware Oaks. She did not get much of a trip that day, and it was her first race in nine weeks. Still, it was so poor that I would be hesitant to assume she will come back to her earlier Beyers.

Include Betty has not hit 90 on the Beyer scale, but the 10 furlongs for this daughter of Include should hit her perfectly.

Embellish the Lace got a 95 Beyer when she won an optional claimer at Pimlico. She went right from there into the Mother Goose, where she got sucked into a speed duel from the rail and had no chance. If she clears this field, she could be dangerous at a price.