Jerardi: Best Behavior could be long gone in Fritchie

Last Saturday’s four stakes are almost as interesting to assess after the races as before. As I wrote about in Friday’s DRF column, Shared Belief’s 106 Beyer Speed Figure in the San Antonio was more a function of the slow pace than the horse’s true ability. Shared Belief got a 106 Beyer as a 2-year-old. The horse was really good then, better now. Put him in a race with an honest pace, and I will be surprised if he doesn’t earn a 115 Beyer.

Constitution obviously loves Gulfstream Park. He was good enough to get consecutive Beyers of 84, 98, and 98 a year ago in his first three starts. He certainly could make a big jump a year later. Did I expect the now-4-year-old to get a 113 in winning the Donn Handicap? I did not, but horses who are loose on the lead regularly get Beyers beyond their true ability. I think that is what happened here, but it is also possible that this son of Tapit has really gotten this good. Lea ran about as well as he did last year, when he won the Donn with a 114. He just ran into a horse who was a little faster this year.

I have no particular explanation for Far From Over’s Withers win, other than to confirm the obvious. It was an amazing performance for a horse with only a nice debut win in decent time on his résumé. The horse not only took all the worst of it with that trip, but he managed to improve his Beyer from a 79 to a 96. And it was not like he was highly touted. He was 9-1 in that first race for Todd Pletcher. El Kabeir, who got a 94 and a 95 in winning those two stakes, got a solid 93 when second in the Withers. I definitely would have thought that figure would have been good enough to win. It just wasn’t.

What I think we saw in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was two very competitive 3-year-olds who had already shown quality in six combined starts. That Dortmund’s winning 91 Beyer in the Los Alamitos Futurity zoomed to a 103 in the Lewis is not a shock. Firing Line made Dortmund run fast, and Dortmund ran fast. Some horses love to fight. And when they do, they are going to run about as fast as they can.

After the coast-to-coast racing carnival, we are back to the winter reality of some nice stakes that are not quite a Shared Belief-California Chrome matchup.

At first glance, the Beyers in the Barbara Fritchie at Laurel Park look similar. There is one potential separator. Best Behavior has battled for the lead in every one of her south Florida starts over the last year. Speed down there often translates to lone speed in the Mid-Atlantic. Best Behavior just ran the best Beyer of her 20-race career in a stakes at Gulfstream Park. If she clears this field, I would expect her to duplicate that figure, a number that should win the race.

I suspect that Sam’s Sister is going to get bet hard. She just won a Grade 1 and then a Grade 2 stakes at Santa Anita. However, she did not run very fast in either race, getting an 87 and then an 88. That won’t do against this group.

Princess Violet, after a terrific 3-year-old season, makes her 4-year-old debut after finishing off 2014 with three successive Beyers of 90 or better. I am not a huge fan of route closers turning back in distance, but the form and the figures are there.

Lady Sabelia had dominated the local female sprinters, but her last three Beyers (99, 97, 91) make her a major contender against the better competition.

What to do with Thegirlinthatsong in the Santa Maria at Santa Anita? She improved her Beyer by 12 points in a breakout performance, getting a 92 in her 19th career race and dominating the La Canada. I am a touch skeptical of any horse who blows up like that for no apparent reason.

Then, I look at Warren’s Veneda, who did the same thing when she improved her Beyer by seven points and finished second to Tiz Midnight in the Bayakoa with a 93. The bettors were a bit skeptical in her next start. She came back to blow away the field in the Paseana and get a 94.

Tiz Midnight has the best set of Beyers in the race. She apparently did not like the wet-fast track last out, but her speed always makes her dangerous.