Jerardi: Beholder likely to get back to best Beyers in Vanity

Eight horses came out of the Kentucky Derby starting gate with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures. Half of them finished 1-2-3-4. American Pharoah ran back to his Arkansas Derby with a winning 105 Beyer. Firing Line’s 104 was no surprise. Dortmund and Frosted went back a few points to 101 and 100. Materiality never had a chance after his early start. Bolo’s number regressed dramatically after his early traffic issues. Tencendur’s Wood Memorial 100 looked like a one-off, and it was. I have no idea why Upstart ran so poorly. That was the race’s biggest mystery.

Carpe Diem did not look like a real threat because he had not hit triple digits. He did not even hit 90 in the Derby. Mubtaahij ran about what our Beyer estimate of his UAE Derby figure suggested he would.

The Vanity looks like a match race between the hot horse, Warren’s Veneda, and the star, Beholder. Warren’s Veneda had hit 90 or higher on the Beyer scale just once in her first 18 races. She has gone 93, 94, 95, and 99 in her last four, three wins and a close second. Beholder got a solid 98 in her comeback race. The two-time divisional champ, however, has four triple-digit Beyers to get back to, so it would seem likely in her second race off a long layoff that she would get back to her best numbers. Beholder at her best is one of the country’s top horses, regardless of sex. It has been a year and a half since that Breeders’ Cup Distaff win, but the performance lingers. She was awesome that day at Santa Anita.

The Man o’ War is almost certainly going to be close and be won with a low-100 Beyer. Imagining is 5 for 10 at Belmont Park and has gotten a 102 in three of his last five starts. Twilight Eclipse has five triple-digit figures in his last six races, with a 99 in the other. The problem is that he has lost all those races, five to champion Main Sequence.

Hardest Core is the hardest call in the race. He got the requisite figure when he won last year’s Arlington Million before getting a preposterous ride in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, a ride so bad you can safely ignore the result. If trainer Eddie Graham has the horse back to his best form in his first start of the year, Hardest Core certainly is a contender.

Two Weeks Off has star potential, and we will know a lot more after the Peter Pan Stakes. The colt got a 104 Beyer when winning his 2015 debut, a first-level allowance at Keeneland. He was not only winning big and running fast, he was beating a very strong field. Second-place Yockey’s Warrior was favored because he was regularly getting 90 Beyers. R U Watchingbud, who finished fourth and got an 82, came right back to win a $150,000 Canadian-bred stakes at Woodbine and get a 79. Island Town was sixth with a 79. He came back to win a first-level optional claimer with an 87.

Peter Pan contender Wolf Man Rocket got a 96 for Bob Baffert when he won the Northern Spur at Oaklawn Park. Madefromlucky got an 89 and then a 90 when running far behind Derby winner American Pharoah in his two Arkansas races. Conquest Curlinate either really liked Hawthorne or had a major breakthrough when second by a nose in the Illinois Derby. The colt’s figure improved 25 points from 70 to 95.

The Ruffian looks like the East Coast version of the Vanity without the talent at the top. Princess Violet’s last five figures, earned at four tracks, are 90, 93, 96, 96, and 93. She has won sprinting and going long. There is no reason to think she won’t fire, and a mid-90 Beyer might be good enough to win unless Via Strata has a fourth consecutive forward move.

Via Strata is unbeaten in three starts and is getting better with each race. She began her career with a 73, improved to an 85, and then to a 93. The filly is winning by large margins and might be able to control this race with her early speed. If she improves again, say to a 100 Beyer, the 4-year-old could become a major player in a division without much depth or fillies capable of really big Beyers.