Jerardi: American Pharoah should crush Rebel rivals
Hopefully, readers have taken careful notes on the Beyer analysis in this space, especially the last two weeks.
This from the preview of the Swale, when it was originally supposed to be run: “Ready for Rye was beaten as a big favorite in the Spectacular Bid, but that was his first race in almost three months. He got a 96 when winning his maiden in October and an 88 when second in the Bid, a race that has come up very strong ... I think Ready for Rye, with almost two months to recover from a hard race, is going to run huge, perhaps getting up near 100 on the Beyer scale.”
It turned out even stronger than that, with a 109 in his blowout win over Daredevil, who got a solid 103 in defeat.
It was mentioned that El Kabeir had “omni figs” in the Gotham. He ran like it while winning easily, showing a new dimension by coming from far off the pace. However, I come bearing bad news. The colt can’t win the Kentucky Derby. His recent Beyers of 94, 95, and 93 were a tribute to his consistency, but a big step forward was needed. Instead, he got only an 89. I absolutely think El Kabeir will try really hard in the Derby. I would rather have a horse with triple-digit Beyers.
I asked about the Tampa Bay Derby: “Can Carpe Diem take that 10-point jump to make him a [Kentucky] Derby contender? That is this race’s biggest question.”
Well, Carpe Diem split the difference, going from a 93 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to a 98 when he crushed the field.
So, last Saturday certainly was interesting, with a few more questions answered and some data verified, including short-priced victories by Shared Belief and Dortmund.
:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays
On to the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and the 3-year-old debut of 2-year-old champion American Pharoah.
I was trying to think of a Derby winner making his 3-year-old debut this late in the season. Street Sense started his 2007 season on March 17 in the Tampa Bay Derby. But unlike American Pharoah, who missed two months on the track after being injured just prior to the Breeders’ Cup, Street Sense’s schedule was by design.
Street Sense had run hard in 2006, making five starts between July and his runaway win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that November. Street Sense got a 108 Beyer that day at Churchill Downs, so it was clear that he was more than fast enough to win the Derby.
Master trainer Carl Nafzger timed it perfectly. He gave Street Sense two Derby preps and got him fit in the morning. Street Sense, with one of the great moves in Derby history, ran by most of the field with an incredible inside move on the turn and won comfortably, getting a 110 Beyer.
Super Saver, the 2010 Derby winner, made his 3-year-old debut March 13 in the Tampa Bay Derby. Given an amazing rail ride by Calvin Borel, Super Saver won the Kentucky Derby with a 104 Beyer. He was never that good before that day or after it.
American Pharoah is a different case than Street Sense or Super Saver. I expect him to run huge in the Rebel. The field is less than stellar. He looks like lone speed. And he is just that talented, with a pair of 101 Beyers in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner, races that he won by a combined eight lengths.
Any 2-year-old who can get triple-digit Beyers that early is clearly capable of giant numbers as a 3-year-old. Now, whether American Pharoah gets to the Derby in top form after playing catch-up is an entirely different question. We will know more after the Rebel, but we won’t know everything.
As for the two Tapit stars making their comebacks earlier on the Oaklawn Park card, I can’t imagine Untapable losing with her Beyers against the Azeri field. I am a Tapiture fan. The horse finished his 3-year-old season with three straight triple-digit Beyers, but he is catching two very tough horses in the Razorback. Race Day and Carve have proven they are capable of earning Beyers around the 106 range. So has Tapiture, but those two have done it this year. We have not seen Tapiture since the BC Dirt Mile, so I would preach caution with him against those horses.