Jerardi: American Pharoah set for career-best effort in Preakness

Once my head cleared from the confusion that the Kentucky Derby results have not been confusing for the last three years, I tried to put this Derby into proper context while looking back at how I framed my bets.

I liked Dortmund from early March but certainly understood that American Pharoah may have caught and passed his stablemate in the weeks leading up to the Derby. I was not buying into the big-margin hype for American Pharoah because he had not run that fast yet and the competition in the Derby was tested and very fast.

I bet the race on the assumption that Dortmund or American Pharoah would win. I stayed away from superfectas because this Derby looked like the recent NCAA tournament – a favorites’ paradise with the potential for historically low payoffs. I boxed the two favorites in exactas and used them on top of three horses, including Firing Line.

I was not thrilled with the mid-$20 price on the favorites box. I was amazed at some of the other exacta prices, including the $72.60 for American Pharoah over Firing Line. I had it a few times but not enough, of course. I have never had anything for enough. Has anybody?

Unlike the rest of the world, I really did not see this Derby as having a lot of speed. It was probably because the best horses had the top early speed that so many had the impression that there was a ton of speed.

I probably would have used Firing Line more if his running style was not similar to the two favorites. Most big exacta bets I have cashed have been with horses of opposite styles. I thought some horse would close at some point, but other than Frosted, there were no moves of any kind.

When the field hit the backstretch and I checked out the fractions, I liked my best play even more – Dortmund over American Pharoah, a relatively easy lead with a chaser and the most talented horse sitting third in the clear.

In a similar race scenario, the horse most likely to tire would be the first chaser, in this case, Firing Line. But Gary Stevens knew that, too, and got his mount to relax and not chase, knowing there would be time to get into a race later.

Dortmund certainly ran well to be third. I don’t think it was the distance that got him because he was clearly beaten by the quarter pole. Perhaps he just regressed a bit off his brilliant races in Southern California. For whatever reason, he just did not have that same fire he demonstrated while going 6 for 6.

Firing Line would have won the Derby in many years with that performance. To be able to chase, lead, and fight a horse as good as American Pharoah for most of the stretch was impressive in every way. Love how the horse was prepared by Simon Callaghan with the easy race at Sunland Park and the six-week layoff.

American Pharoah got a solid 105 Beyer Speed Figure. Some think because he was asked for absolutely everything and could not go higher on the speed-figure scale that perhaps he is not quite as good as the expectations.

I now think the expectations were correct. I think this horse may indeed be a superstar.

Consider that the colt missed all that training time this winter and really had to be rushed to get to the March 14 Rebel Stakes, his first race in 5 1/2 months. The two Arkansas races were nothing but paid workouts. How much could American Pharoah have gotten out of those races?

Some think the Derby might knock him out. I see it another way, that the Derby may have gotten American Pharoah the fitness he never was able to get this winter. If you think about it, he had less preparation than any horse in the race and won anyway. The Derby had to be worth five workouts. I think his career-best performance is coming May 16 at Pimlico.

Almost all of the really good recent Derby winners have gone on to win the Preakness, sometimes by big margins. I am thinking Smarty Jones and Big Brown specifically. Each of Bob Baffert’s three prior Derby winners won the Preakness. With all due respect to the wonderful Silver Charm, I think Baffert would tell you that this is his most talented Derby winner.

If this were a weaker bunch of 3-year-olds, I would pronounce American Pharoah a lock in the Preakness. I won’t go there, but if American Pharoah explodes and wins the Preakness by a big margin, I will not be surprised.