Jerardi: American Pharoah chasing Dortmund’s shadow
Last Saturday, Dortmund’s form was confirmed with a 106 Beyer Speed Figure in the Santa Anita Derby after a pair of 104s to start his 3-year-old season. If you are concerned that he has been winning with easy leads, consider that he is fast enough to get those leads and fast enough to stay out of trouble if he doesn’t. Also, check out his 2-year-old form and see how he won those races. This colt is absolutely the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby.
Frosted’s 103 Beyer when winning the Wood Memorial was last Saturday’s most intriguing result, the Tapit colt running to his pedigree and placing himself firmly in the Derby mix. Carpe Diem looks much better during his races than he does after the Beyer arithmetic. The $1.6 million colt dominated the Blue Grass Stakes just like he did the Tampa Bay Derby. He definitely has the look of a Derby contender but does not have the numbers, with a 95 at Keeneland after a 98 at Tampa Bay Downs.
After all the preps, we are down to one race and one horse. After the Arkansas Derby, even if American Pharoah wins by daylight, we are still going to have to ask ourselves if this brilliant colt can really win the Derby despite missing two months of critical training time. Perhaps he will be the exception to most of the rules.
American Pharoah will be 2-5 or shorter at Oaklawn Park and should be. He got a pair of 101s as a 2-year-old, 10 points better than any of his opponents have ever gotten. He got a 100 in the Rebel when he barely took a deep breath. The most interesting aspect of this race is going to be the pace.
Obviously, Mr. Z has early speed, but he might not run. And, if he does, the instructions have to be to stay out of the way of American Pharoah, the other Zayat Stables horse.
The reality is that American Pharoah has the most early speed anyway. This colt was fast enough to be with the pace in two sprints at Del Mar last summer, including the Del Mar Futurity, which he dominated. But it would be instructive to see American Pharoah just off the pace. I have seen nothing to suggest he can’t win without the lead, but his three wins have been with the lead, so there is no way to be absolutely certain.
Far Right obviously loves Oaklawn Park, with his wins in the Smarty Jones and Southwest stakes. His figures have jumped nicely from 2 to 3, with an 89 and then a 91. To win this, Far Right will have to take a big figure jump and have American Pharoah regress, an unlikely exacta.
Write down the time of the Oaklawn Handicap, which will be run four races prior to the Arkansas Derby, also at 1 1/8 miles. Race Day has been brilliant in his three races for Todd Pletcher, getting Beyers of 109, 104, and 106. If he wins, compare his time with that of the Arkansas Derby winner, especially if it’s American Pharoah.
Unlike American Pharoah, Race Day has some serious competition. Tapiture probably needed his last race and ended last season with Beyers of 101, 100, and 105. Carve was good enough to get a 106 two races back. There is not much pace in this race, so Golden Lad, coming off a 102 in the Essex at Oaklawn, could be dangerous, especially if loose on the lead. Hard Aces was good enough to get within six lengths of Shared Belief in the Santa Anita Handicap, backing up his 104 Beyer in his Louisiana Handicap win with a 102.
It doesn’t look like there are any Derby horses in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. I do see a potentially hot pace. Henry Jones, Fame and Power, and Donworth all have been right with the pace in sprints, so this heat won’t be for the meek. Fame and Power got a 93 Beyer in his 3-year-old debut and his first race with Lasix, a 16-point improvement over his final 2-year-old race, suggesting stakes potential.
The rest of these are pretty much exposed. Divining Rod was a strong second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, where he got a 93 Beyer, but had a few early issues in the Tampa Bay Derby when third to Carpe Diem. Losing to Carpe Diem is certainly no disgrace, but it wasn’t close, and he will need to improve that 85 Beyer to become a factor with the better 3-year-olds.