Jerardi: American Pharoah can solve the Belmont riddle
Prior to the Kentucky Derby, more people picked American Pharoah than any other horse. Prior to the Preakness, just about everybody picked American Pharoah. This week, hardly anyone I talk with is picking American Pharoah to win the Belmont Stakes.
The near Triple Crown misses have collectively psyched us all out. I definitely include myself in that group.
When you see Smarty Jones run maybe the best race of his life and get beat, and you see Big Brown get eased, and you see California Chrome get stepped on at the start, get trapped on the rail and get beat, you would not be human if you did not at least consider the history that also includes Spectacular Bid getting a ridiculous ride, Silver Charm doing everything but win, and Real Quiet winning for all but the final stride.
So, history plays a role in our thoughts. On a more pragmatic level, so does the reality that modern stakes-caliber horses are never asked to run three times in five weeks except during the Triple Crown. And the only horse who has to run in all three is the horse who has won the first two.
The schedule and perhaps the distance are really American Pharoah’s only issues. I would be more concerned about the schedule than the distance.
Judging by his Monday work and the universal praise it got, it is clear that American Pharoah has come through the grind as well as any horse during the 37-year Triple Crown drought.
American Pharoah is clearly the best of his generation, and not by a little. If you throw out his debut, when he wore blinkers that didn’t help and was affected by crowd noise that clearly hurt, American Pharoah, with those ear plugs, has dominated every start except the Derby.
Perhaps not totally fit after missing all that training time and obviously affected by the Derby scene, American Pharoah found a way when he was clearly not at his best. That is the mark of a great horse.
The colt’s other five wins have come by a combined 29 lengths. Four were wire to wire, and the other, the Arkansas Derby, was semi-wire to wire, as the horse in front early was more nuisance than threat.
Unless some jockey decides to challenge American Pharoah early and eliminate whatever chance his horse has of winning, American Pharoah and Victor Espinoza, with those four wire-to-wire wins, appear to have a gigantic tactical advantage as the lone speed. None of the other horses has ever gone wire to wire or even led at the first call of any race.
Clearly, Todd Pletcher’s two horses and the tactics of their jockeys hold the key to how the race will be run. Neither Materiality nor Madefromlucky has American Pharoah’s natural speed, but each certainly has tactical speed. But what if one of the riders emulates Alex Solis on Rock Hard Ten or Jerry Bailey on Eddington circa 2004 while trying to beat American Pharoah, knowing the early effort almost certainly will eliminate any chance they have of winning?
Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that American Pharoah just cruises to the front and sets moderate fractions – a very reasonable scenario given the history of the horses in this race, so many of whom are out-of-the-clouds closers. Really, why wouldn’t American Pharoah win in that circumstance?
Yes, the schedule still could catch up with American Pharoah. Or the distance.
Again, the distance is less of a hurdle to me since all the chasers are likely to be staggering in the stretch. The 1 1/2-mile distance is a horse-racing anachronism, a distance from a bygone era.
And none of us will know if the schedule is a problem until they run the race. Recent history and common sense strongly suggest that major stakes winners like Frosted and Materiality, rested the five weeks since the Derby, have an obvious advantage over American Pharoah – unless the Derby and Preakness winner is just so talented that nothing matters except ability.
I can’t give you a past-performance reason why American Pharoah won’t win. I will tell you that American Pharoah really should win. I won’t tell you that American Pharoah will win.