Jay Privman's Kentucky Derby analysis

Grade 1, $2,178,800 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 miles, Churchill Downs, May 2, 2015

Winner: American Pharoah

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC

Beyer Speed Figure: 105

AMERICAN PHAROAH, last year’s champion 2-year-old male, became the third straight favorite and the third California-trained runner in the last four years to win the Kentucky Derby, with this hard-fought victory over a stubborn FIRING LINE and DORTMUND. Bob Baffert trained the winner and third-place finisher.

After a puzzling loss in his debut, American Pharoah had won four straight races in seemingly effortless fashion, which made him the favorite against 17 rivals in the 141st Derby. He had to work for it, but prevailed in deep stretch to give Baffert his fourth Derby win, jockey Victor Espinoza his third, and owner Ahmed Zayat his first.

With 18 runners, both the inside stall in the main gate and outside stall in the auxiliary gate were left open. American Pharoah officially broke from post 15, but because of the alignment of the runners, he was in stall 16, the second one in the auxiliary gate, just outside of the Zayat-owned MR. Z.

American Pharoah was able to follow Mr. Z down toward the main pack during the opening furlong, and was outside and just in front of a multi-horse bumping match that compromised several runners, including Mr. Z, DANZIG MOON, and BOLO. He was able to swing into the first turn in the three path, outside and slightly behind of both Dortmund and Firing Line.

There were a couple points up the backstretch where Espinoza had to nudge on American Pharoah to stay with the leaders. It was apparent that this wasn’t going to be the cakewalk of his prior victories. He ranged up outside both Dortmund and Firing Line on the far turn, and with five-sixteenths of a mile to go Espinoza gave him the first of 32 smacks with the whip.

American Pharoah was carried out about five paths wide entering the lane because Firing Line was purposely kept away from Dortmund. With Espinoza beating a steady tattoo on his right flank, American Pharoah got his head in front of Firing Line with a furlong remaining, but only in the final 50 yards did he finally begin to inch clear, eventually winning by one length.

American Pharoah proved best on the day, but this was a hard race. He had been handed the Triple Crown in many quarters before the Derby was even run, such was the hype regarding him leading up to the race, especially after a dazzling final workout six days before the Derby at Churchill Downs. He might very well pull it off, for he is an unquestionably talented colt, but this is a tall order. In the Preakness, he will be coming back on two weeks’ rest and will be racing for the third time in five weeks, and if he manages to get through that, he’ll be racing for the fourth time in eight weeks in the Belmont.

Firing Line ran the race of his life to be second, only surrendering in the closing yards after a valiant effort. He deserves a better fate at some point, for he was narrowly beaten by Dortmund in his lone prior Grade 1 race, the Los Alamitos Futurity, and just missed against Dortmund in the Robert Lewis. He had trained sensationally leading up to the race, and ran to it, while given a clever ride by Gary Stevens.

Stevens blamed himself for losing the Lewis, in which Dortmund re-rallied to beat Firing Line. This time, Stevens stalked Dortmund but kept a horse width’s distance between Dortmund and Firing Line, rather than stay lapped right on Dortmund. Firing Line broke well and was very keen the opening quarter-mile, but Stevens managed to get him to sit on Dortmund’s flank around the first turn after being even with him coming under the wire the first time. He remained in that spot down the backstretch and into the far turn, at which point Firing Line moved up to challenge for the lead.

Stevens kept Firing Line well away from Dortmund, which forced American Pharoah wider still. As the field came into the lane, Firing Line was between them, but was racing on his wrong lead, which he did all the way to the wire. Firing Line moved with American Pharoah as they left Dortmund with 200 yards to go, but he could not stay with American Pharoah in the final yards.

Dortmund, who was third, broke alertly and showed good speed to grab the lead within a furlong of the start. He remained in front until upper stretch, at which point Firing Line and American Pharoah drew even with him. Martin Garcia whipped him right handed, then left, then switched back to the right, but inside the furlong pole he began to lose ground to the top two, and he just did hold third over FROSTED while suffering the first loss of his career.

Frosted, who finished fourth, was severely herded leaving the gate by WAR STORY, who crossed over toward the rail and caused Frosted to be 15th a furlong into the race. He was three paths wide while in the clear on the first turn, but as horses fanned out in front of him nearing the far turn he had to go to the six path for room on the final turn. He made a sustained rally on the turn to go from about 14th to sixth, drifted back to the four path, and kept motoring to just miss third. Considering how compromised he was early, this was a terrific effort.

Danzig Moon was one of the race longshots who had impressed in his training the week of the Derby, and he outran his 22-1 odds to finish fifth. He broke well but ended up in a scary spot coming through the lane the first time, right up on Dortmund’s heels while bouncing off CARPE DIEM to his inside and Bolo to his outside. He sucked out of that spot and wound up on the rail behind Carpe Diem around the first turn. He stayed there much of the backstretch, then as the field spread out he was able to get outside Carpe Diem heading into the far turn. He got into fourth with a quarter-mile remaining, then went evenly through the lane.

MATERIALITY, who was sixth, proved why inexperience can be a huge liability in the Derby. He stood flat-footed when the gate opened, and thus a horse expected to be on or near the lead found himself eating dirt and in front of just five horses coming under the wire the first time. He worked his way to the outside by the time he got to the far turn, but was out-footed there, most notably by Frosted. Through the lane, though, he weaved through traffic and made a strong, belated bid. He will be better for the effort, but the mistakes he made – breaking slowly, running in spots – were costly this day.

KEEN ICE, who was seventh, was angled immediately to the rail coming away from the gate and was in front of just two horses coming under the wire the first time. He was tipped to the three path entering the far turn and began to rally, but had to wait in traffic in upper stretch behind Mr. Z. He had to await room behind horses anew with a furlong to go, bulled his way between rivals ITSAKNOCKOUT and FRAMMENTO to get a lane, then finished up well while racing on his wrong lead in a deceptively good effort. His style makes him dependent on pace and a clean trip.

MUBTAAHIJ, who finished eighth, was the only runner who went to the post without a lead pony, which is the custom in the rest of the world but not here. Showing the horsemanship of trainer Michael de Kock, he was completely calm in the post parade. He broke a half-step slowly and then was bumped twice solidly by Itsaknockout in the opening furlong before dropping to the rail in 12th. He stayed on the rail for the rest of the race and never made an impact while racing on his wrong lead through the stretch. He’s not this good.

Itsaknockout, who was ninth, was herded early by Mr. Z and bounced twice off Mubtaahij in the opening furlong, then sucked back and found himself in the clear just outside Mubtaahij around the first turn. He wound up four paths wide into the far turn and was out-footed by, among others, Frosted with three furlongs to go. He was taken to the middle of the track for the stretch run but had no acceleration.

Carpe Diem wound up 10th despite a pretty sweet trip. He followed Dortmund along the rail into the first turn, and found himself fourth – behind the eventual first three finishers – heading up the backstretch. He could make no impact when asked, and wound up among a clump of horses who finished mid-pack. Considering his early position, this was one of the poorer efforts in the race.

Frammento, who finished 11th, was only one path off the rail heading into the first turn despite starting from the outside post. He has no early speed, so was well back early on. He was given a tap with the whip for the first time with more than a half-mile remaining, went to the five path on the far turn when attempting to rally, was carried widest of all into the lane, took a bump when Keen Ice bulled his way between rivals at midstretch, and kept trying but was not good enough.

Bolo, who was 12th, was jostled severely between rivals coming under the wire the first time, raced in traffic between rivals around the first turn, began to get outrun with 3 1/2 furlongs to go, was guided to the middle of the track for the stretch run, could not keep up and then was slightly squeezed between rivals in the closing yards. Back to the turf, on which he is very, very good.

Mr. Z, who finished 13th, bounced off Bolo several times coming under the wire the first time, ended up three paths wide while not far off the leaders around the first turn, had a fairly clean trip after that and was simply outrun. He has now lost 12 straight and hasn’t had a break since his winning debut last June. He is long overdue for a much-deserved vacation.

OCHO OCHO OCHO, who was 14th, started from the rail and was shuffled back slightly coming under the wire the first time, but saved ground while racing just behind Danzig Moon around the first turn. He had an amazingly clear trip after that, and on the far turn got up to fifth after out-footing Carpe Diem, but he ran out of steam in the final furlong and faded.

FAR RIGHT, who finished 15th, dropped down toward the rail through the lane after starting from an outside stall, but then was tipped to the three path around the first turn while racing in last place. He remained well off the rail down the backstretch, had no acceleration when others started to rally three furlongs out, was taken wider still entering the lane, and never got involved.

War Story, who was 16th, came over on a sharp angle leaving the gate, herding Frosted, and was in front of just three rivals while racing in the clear coming under the wire the first time. He had a mild rally inside horses with three furlongs to go but got bounced off the rail by TENCENDUR, continued inside, and failed to sustain a run.

Tencendur, who was 17th, raced in severe traffic coming through the lane the first time, was steadily outrun down the backside, then carelessly interfered with War Story three furlongs out before continuing to finish out his dull effort.

UPSTART, who finished last of the 18 runners, was fine for about a furlong, but then started racing on his wrong lead and striding awkwardly when hit with the kickback. That didn’t bode well for him in such a large field. He was only about three lengths behind American Pharoah while following him heading into the first turn, lost ground down the backstretch, offered no rally on the far turn, and was in front of only Tencendur with a furlong remaining when he began to be eased, though he did eventually cross the wire.