Japan: Queen Elizabeth II a wide-open affair

Seventeen fillies and mares are entered to race 2200 meters, 1 3/8 miles, on Sunday at Kyoto Racecourse in the Group 1, $954,612 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. And nobody seems to have a strong sense of who will be winning.

The early betting favorite is Normcore, but her price is only just shorter than that of Red Genova, with Mozu Katchan, Lys Gracieux, and Cantabile not far behind in the Japan Racing Association win pool. Every one of those horses have their flaws – from questions of distance to issues of quality – and it should come as no surprise if the QE II winner emerges from relative obscurity.

Japan’s top two horses who might compete Sunday aren’t. Three-year-old filly Almond Eye, winner of Japan’s version of the fillies’ Triple Crown, races against males later this month in the Japan Cup. Deirdre is being aimed for Dubai in late March.

The QE II is expected to be contested over firm ground. Post time is set for 1:40 a.m. Eastern on Sunday.

Three-year-old Normcore (who, like others in her generation, get two kilograms, or about 4.4 pounds, from her older rivals) has won 3 of her 5 starts but will be tested Sunday for class and stamina. She’s yet to race about the Group 2 level and in winning the Group 3 Shion Stakes on Sept. 8 at Nakayama she beat Mau Lea, a filly who was nothing close to a match for the likes of Almond Eye earlier this year. Normcore did see out 1 1/4 miles in the Shion but will be asked to stay another furlong Sunday.

The other 3-year-old attracting considerable attention is Cantabile, who was left reeling by Almond Eye on Oct. 14 in the Group 1 Shuka Sho, though she did finish third of 14 in that 2000-meter test. Cantabile’s best wins came at 1800 meters, but as a daughter of Deep Impact and a Galileo mare she at least is bred to get the QE II trip.

Mozu Katchan beat 17 foes to win the 2017 QE II but hasn’t done a lot since, racing just three times during the last year, none of those starts producing a peak performance. She races for the first time since Aug. 19 and seems a relatively unlikely repeat winner.

Red Genova definitely stays the distance but only made her group stakes debut on Oct. 9, though she did finish second over 2400 meters at Kyoto to Satono Diamond, who at one stage of his career was a very solid top-class performer.

Lys Gracieux’s 15 starts include zero successes at the Group 1 level while her best trip could be something between 1800 and 2000 meters. That she rates as one of the favorites Sunday shows how wide open the QE II is perceived to be.