Japan: Any way you spell it, Satsuki Sho is wide open
“Okiku hiraku” means “wide open” in Japanese, and the Group 1, $1.68 million Satsuki Sho on Sunday at Nakayama Racecourse looks okiku hiraku indeed.
Japan’s version of the 2000 Guineas is contested over 2,000 meters on Nakayama’s right-handed course, which, given a rainy weekend forecast, figures to be good to soft if not outright soft. That throws another variable into a race already lacking any sort of standout that, frankly, looks “magirawashi” – confusing.
The two favorites as of Friday, both about 9-2 in an 18-runner field, are Phantom Thief and Sol Oriens. Neither has done anything spectacular.
Phantom Thief finished fourth Dec. 28 at Nakayama in the Group 1 Hopeful, a race won by subsequent UAE Derby runner-up Dura Erede.
Dura Erede got up by a nose over Top Knife in a 2,000-meter race that appeared to be void of pace: The runner-up led until the final jump, Dura Erede tracking him all the way around the oval. Top Knife also is entered in the Satsuki Sho, and he was an 18-1 shot on Friday.
Phantom Thief, who saved ground around the far turn and split horses in upper stretch, was among the faster Hopeful finishers, all of whom were pace disadvantaged. But how good was anyone in the Hopeful?
Third-place King’s Rein came home quickest but in his next start, the March 25 Manichi Hai, finished 12th as the favorite. Phantom Thief came back from the Hopeful to start Feb. 12 at Hanshin in the Kyodo News Hai, and with Christophe Lemaire riding for the first time, he showed much more speed, tracking the pacesetter before forging to the lead with a half-furlong left in that 1,800-meter contest.
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The popular Lemaire has a return call on Phantom Thief, a son of Harbinger who has yet to encounter anything but good ground.
Sol Oriens, by Kitasan Black, has started his career with two wins but makes his first start since January. Despite blowing the end of the final turn, Sol Oriens scored an eye-catching open-lengths victory going 2,000 meters at Nakayama in the Group 3 Keisei Hai. The colt has ample upside but here again there are questions of company: The runner-up in the Keisei Hai was Omega Rich Man, a 118-1 shot who returned to be sixth in the Manichi Hai.
Bellagio Opera, trading at about 5-1 Friday, has won his three starts while proving capable of handling ground with give in it. His debut victory came over a good to soft course and he came with a sustained wide rally over soft going to capture the Group 2 Fuji TV Sho Spring Stakes going 1,800 meters at Nakayama on March 19.
The only other horses at single digit win odds Friday were Touch Wood and Hrimfaxi, and the Satsuki Sho could be ripe for “sapuraizu” – a surprise.
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