Jac’s Fact has look of vulnerable favorite

Jac’s Fact is arguably the best horse in Saturday’s $75,000 Michael Rowland Memorial Handicap at ThistleDown. As a 3-year-old last season, Jac’s Fact won five races, including a pair of stakes, and was the runner-up in two other stakes.

His best races, however, have been at a mile or longer, and the Rowland, restricted to Ohio-accredited horses, is at six furlongs. His last sprint victory came 11 months ago at Belterra Park.

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A distance that’s far shorter than ideal and an 0-for-5 record at ThistleDown could make Jac’s Fact a play-against at a short price.

Viable alternatives include the 10-year-old Key Low, an 11-time winner in sprints who gets a key rider shift to Antonio Gallardo, and Culpepper Creek, who was third in last year’s Rowland.

Michael Rowland Memorial, race 8

KEY CONTENDERS

Jac’s Fact (Last 3 Beyers: 62-82-69)

◗ He returns two weeks after he was a nonthreatening fourth against open company.

◗ His trainer, Ivan Vazquez, is 0 for his last 9 with sprinters back in 14 days or fewer.

Plain Ol’ Willard (Last 3 Beyers: 72-74-70)

◗ On the plus side, trainer Anthony Lowry is 3 for 7 (43 percent) with horses switching from routes to sprints following a break of 61 to 180 days, which applies to Plain Ol’ Willard in this spot. But the one time Plain Ol’ Willard tried that move, he was fourth as the 8-5 favorite in April 2014. He also was fourth in the 2013 Rowland.

Key Low (Last 3 Beyers: 50-26-64)

◗ He once was a good sprinter, but his last win going short came against $5,000 claimers in October 2013.

◗ He could wake up with the addition of blinkers.

◗ It’s a positive sign that Gallardo, the runaway leader at Tampa Bay Downs, has taken the mount.

Culpepper Creek (Last 3 Beyers: 51-27-66)

◗ He was third while making his first start since December two weeks ago, but he regressed off an even better effort when third in this race last year.

◗ His last win came over $7,500 claimers.

Mound (Last 3 Beyers: 58-45-54)

◗ He wheels back seven days after causing interference in the stretch run of the Tall Stacks at Belterra and challenges older horses for the first time.

◗ His trainer is just 2 for 12 over the last five years with all sprinters back in seven days or fewer.