Irish Derby all about the O'Briens

“Which O’Brien” long has been an important question regarding classic races in Ireland, where champion trainer Aidan O’Brien typically has multiple live entries, but the phrase has acquired a second meaning. Saturday’s renewal of the Group 1 Irish Derby not only has six runners trained by Aidan O’Brien, there are three from his son Joseph, and another horse trained by another son, Donnacha. That’s 10 of the 15 Irish Derby runners all in the family – “which O’Brien,” indeed.

Aidan has won 12 of the last 19 editions of the 1 1/2-mile Irish Derby (post time 2:15 Eastern; course condition at The Curragh “good” as of Thursday) and his two best hopes this year, according to the fixed-odds early wagering market, are Santiago and Arthur’s Tale.

Both raced at Royal Ascot, Santiago winning the Queen’s Vase over 1 ¾ miles, Arthur’s Kingdom coming second to longshot Pyledriver in the 1 ½-mile King Edward VII. Santiago is by Authorized, whose offspring’s average winning distance is 12 furlongs, and out of Wadyhatta, a mare by Cape Cross, another stamina source. He had no trouble negotiating the 14-furlong Queen’s Vase. Last year, Santiago finished second in a maiden race to Alpine Magic, the blowout winner of the Group 1 Coronation Stakes on June 20, before leading from start to finish in a one-mile maiden at Listowel. The colt remains something of a cipher, talented but without a firm baseline, and on Thursday ranked a tepid favorite at about 3-1.

Arthur’s Kingdom raced four times at age 2, when he rose higher than Santiago, finishing second over heavy ground in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud. He does not seem ground-dependent and stands a decent chance of taking at least a moderate step forward from his Royal Ascot comeback race.

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Crossfirehurricane, unbeaten in four starts, is Joseph’s clearest chance. An American-bred son of Kitten’s Joy, Crossfirehurricane’s good all-weather winter form translated to The Curragh’s grass course, where he rallied from last behind a strong pace to win the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes, a 1 ¼-mile Irish Derby prep. His stablemate New York Girl, a New Approach filly who gets four pounds from the colts, was an encouraging fourth making her 2020 bow in the Irish 1000 Guineas.

Not to be discounted is Fiscal Rule, bred, owned, and trained by Jim Bolger, a two-time Irish Derby winner himself. Fiscal Rule’s fourth in the Irish 2000 Guineas over one mile has the feel of a pure prep for Saturday’s race – where a host of O’Briens stand between him and victory.