Inexperience may be bigger obstacle than post 10 for Stretch's Stone

Stretch’s Stone might seem vulnerable to some bettors as one of the favorites in Friday’s sixth race at Aqueduct, a $57,000, first-level allowance for New York-bred 3-year-olds, due to landing the far-outside post in a field of 10 going 1 1/16 miles.

Distance-specific statistics suggest otherwise. Although the No. 10 hole is a low-percentage post in races at a mile and at a mile and 70 yards at this Aqueduct inner-track meet, the outside has won more than its fair share in races at 1 1/16 miles, which have a run of a little more than a furlong from the start to the first turn. Post 10 is 2 for 7, and post 11, the widest starting position in such races to date at the meet, is 1 for 4.

Regardless of whether this outside-winning trend continues at 1 1/16 miles – and due to the small sample size and the lesser numbers for posts 8 and 9, they likely won’t maintain such a high percentage – Stretch’s Stone doesn’t figure to lose due to his post.

Inexperience seems like a greater obstacle. Having made just two starts, Stretch’s Stone is the most lightly raced horse in the field, and he is untested at a route or against winners after two races at six furlongs, the last of which resulted in an 8 1/4-length romp in the mud and a race-best 84 Beyer Speed Figure.

He also faces a nice group of statebred runners, including Can You Diggit, who rallied powerfully to win a maiden race Jan. 21; Dynamax Prime, third against a similar allowance field Jan. 28; and stakes droppers Bourbon Empire and Jaime’s Angel.

Bourbon Empire looks especially dangerous, having twice run third in stakes races after a maiden victory at first asking at Belmont. He adds blinkers after hitting the gate and breaking a few lengths slowly in the Gander Stakes on Jan. 28. Rajiv Maragh stays aboard after riding three other entrants in their previous starts.

Race 6

Key Contenders

Can You Diggit, by Tiznow

Last 3 Beyers: 77-74-51

◗ Overcame a slow pace to win a one-mile maiden race in his fifth start, closing from seventh to win going away despite the leader setting an opening fraction of 25.21 seconds.

Bourbon Empire, by Majestic Warrior

Last 3 Beyers: 78-80-76

◗ Trainer Mark Hennig has below-average numbers with horses racing with blinkers for the first time. Not counting first-time starters who debuted with blinkers, he is 5 for 49 with such types over the past five years, with a return on investment of $1.18.

Stretch’s Stone, by Bustin Stones

Last 2 Beyers: 84-70

◗ Though his sire was a sprinter, going unbeaten in six starts capped by a win in the Grade 1 Carter in 2008, his dam was a stayer, recording six of her seven victories in routes.