Indiana Derby: Power Broker may be overbet due to the 'Baffert factor'

Bob Baffert has helped put the biggest day of Indiana racing on the map. Baffert, loaded with stock, particularly in the 3-year-old divisions, has been sending horses from Southern California to central Indiana regularly since 2009. He has won Indiana’s biggest race, the Indiana Derby, twice, with Misremembered in 2009 and with Lookin at Lucky in 2010, when Baffert also won the Indiana Oaks. A Baffert horse shows up at Indiana and bettors jump on it.

A little-mentioned tidbit: The Baffert-Indiana connection has gone cold.

In 2011, Baffert took home a pair of fourths with 4-5 shots in the two Indiana stakes he tried. Last fall, he ran horses in four stakes: Fed Biz managed a third at 6-5 in the Indiana Derby, but that was as high a placing as any of his starters earned, and 6-5 Ellafitz finished last of eight in the Marie Hulman George.

This year, the Indiana Derby has been moved 40 miles south from Hoosier Park, which hosts only harness racing now, to Indiana Downs, but bettors’ proclivities don’t figure to change. Baffert’s Indiana Derby starter Power Broker was installed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite and could drop lower, while Fiftyshadesofhay will be odds-on to win the Indiana Oaks. Fiftyshadesofhay looks formidable; Power Broker looks beatable.

Power Broker is one of 12 horses in the Grade 2, $500,000 Indiana Derby, contested at 1 1/16 miles over a track that could come up wet. Midnight Taboo, one of two entrants for trainer Todd Pletcher, was scratched Thursday, opening a spot for also-eligible Ground Transport. The Pletcher-trained Micromanage moves in to post 11.

The derby (race 11, post time 6:50 p.m. Eastern) is the last of eight stakes on a 12-race card starting at 1:55, and is immediately preceded by the Grade 2 Oaks. Two $100,000 stakes for older horses earlier on the card drew horses of note: Don’t Tell Sophia runs in the Marie Hulman George; Neck ‘n Neck and Rail Trip start in the Michael G. Schaefer.

Power Broker, who can handle a wet track and will be ridden by Martin Garcia, has run two races this year good enough to contend: his 3 3/4-length win over Micromanage in the Easy Goer at Belmont Park, and his second to Verazzano, who ran a career-best, in the July 28 Haskell Invitational, Power Broker’s most recent start. A break of more than two months between races has come about by design, according to Baffert, who said Power Broker is “sitting on a big race.”

“He’s had no issues,” Baffert said. “I really think he needs to mature a lot more, and that he’s going to be better the older he gets. We didn’t want to run him too much.”

But Power Broker’s win chance probably won’t match his post-time odds, and his preferred pressing style could place him closer than desirable to a potentially demanding pace. The capable Edge of Reality led all the way winning the Grade 2 Smarty Jones at Parx Racing last out, and almost certainly will establish forward position from an inside draw. Ruler of Love has been the early leader in his two-turn dirt races, while Bradester and Take It Like a Man, both of whom have speed, must leave their outside draws running to establish position.

Holy Lute, another California invader, was relaxed enough to sit fourth last out winning the El Cajon Stakes, his two-turn debut and third career start, and he could settle into a sweet spot just behind the lead group for jockey David Flores. Holy Lute has run well in each of his races, all on synthetic surfaces, and has a chance to improve in his dirt debut. Last weekend, he worked a bullet five furlongs in 58.60 seconds on Santa Anita’s dirt track.

“He gets over the dirt really well,” said trainer Jim Cassidy. “Right now, he looks to me to be the real deal.”

Uncaptured, third in Parx’s Smarty Jones, could benefit from a fast pace, but his price will be shorter than less-exposed rallying types like Mr Palmer and Fordubai. Mr Palmer, who drew the rail, starts for the first time since fishing fourth in the slow-paced Wood Memorial in April, and he has been training with verve with Bill Mott’s string at Churchill Downs. Mr Palmer rarely worked fast as a young horse, but has turned in one quick drill after another preparing for this comeback.

“I’ve seen a difference,” said assistant trainer Kenny McCarthy. “I would put it mostly down to maturity.”

Fordubai has won two straight races on Polytrack while appearing to struggle over the artificial surface. His second to Departing in the Illinois Derby was his last dirt race, and he could move up with the surface switch.