Incentivise the home-team choice in Melbourne Cup

Last year, European-based runners swept the first three positions in the Group 1 Melbourne Cup at Flemington Racecourse in Australia.

That will not happen on Tuesday, when the race is run before a pandemic-limited crowd of 10,000 in Melbourne. The widespread European participation that has led to five winners in the last 10 years has been reduced to two prominent shippers – Twilight Payment, who won the race in 2020 for Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien, and the Kentucky-bred Spanish Mission, who is based in England with Andrew Balding.

For this year’s running, the regulatory body Racing Victoria has enacted strict veterinary protocols in an effort to improve safety in the Melbourne Cup following the fatal breakdown last year of Anthony Van Dyck, who won the 2019 English Derby for Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien, father of Joseph O’Brien.

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This year, all potential Melbourne Cup starters have been required to undergo extensive scrutiny, including a standing CT scan in recent days. In addition, invited international horses were required to pass pre-travel inspection equivalent to observation on a race day.

Foreign horses with past major fractures or orthopedic surgery were not invited. Foreign horses were allowed one start in Australia before the Melbourne Cup, although Spanish Mission and Twilight Payment had their most recent starts in Europe.

As of Friday, Spanish Mission had not passed his pre-race examination out of concern over heat in a foreleg.

As of Thursday, Spanish Mission (8-1) and Twilight Payment (9-1) were second and third in future-book betting with Australian bookmakers behind the dominant favorite Incentivise, at 3-2. Incentivise has won nine consecutive races, including an easy victory by 3 1/2 lengths in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup at Caulfield Racecourse in Melbourne on Oct. 16, a key prep for the $5.38 million Melbourne Cup at two miles.

Spanish Mission, owned by Californian Gary Barber and the Team Valor partnership, was second in the Group 2 Londsale Cup at two miles at York Racecourse in England in August. Twilight Payment was second in the Group 1 Irish St. Leger Stakes at 1 3/4 miles at The Curragh in Ireland on Sept. 12.

A full field of 24 is expected, with post positions scheduled to be drawn on Saturday.

Aside from Incentivise, the Australian contenders are Verry Elleegant, the 2020-21 Horse of the Year who has had erratic form in recent starts, and Grand Promenade and Tralee Rose, the first two finishers of the Group 3 Bart Cummings Stakes at 1 9/16 miles at Flemington on Oct. 2