Improbable stakes claim among California's older horse division

Improbable went nearly 18 months between wins in Grade 1 races from the Los Alamitos Futurity in December 2018 to Saturday’s Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita.

In the interim, Improbable was the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and had developed a reputation as something of an underachiever. The win in the $300,500 Hollywood Gold Cup helped to change that.

The Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles was Improbable’s first win since the minor Shared Belief Stakes last August at Del Mar and has put the 4-year-old colt on a schedule for the leading races for older males in the second half of the year. A long-range goal is the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 7 at Keeneland.

A race such as the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 miles on Aug. 22 at Del Mar is a possibility, although trainer Bob Baffert steered away from a discussion on race goals Sunday morning.

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“That’s too far out,” he said. “We’ve got a long way to go.”

First, Improbable needs to maintain his status in California’s older horse division. The group has lacked a clear leader since the start of the Santa Anita winter-spring meeting in late December. Gift Box won the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes in December, Midcourt won the Grade 2 San Pasqual Stakes in February, and Combatant won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March.

Of those, Midcourt finished a troubled fifth in the Hollywood Gold Cup after a poor start.

Combatant, 10th in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap on May 2 at Oaklawn Park, worked five furlongs in a quick 59.20 seconds on Saturday at Santa Anita.

Combatant is being prepared for the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap on July 18 at Del Mar, trainer John Sadler said in a text message Sunday.

Gift Box was the morning-line favorite for the Big Cap, but did not start because of concern over an ankle.

Improbable was second in the Oaklawn Mile in April in his 2020 debut.

Last year, Improbable finished fifth at 4-1 in the Kentucky Derby and was promoted to fourth after Maximum Security was disqualified for causing interference. Two weeks later, Improbable finished sixth of 13 at 5-2 in the Preakness Stakes after becoming upset in the starting gate.

Improbable was later fourth as the 6-5 favorite after a poor start in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and a well-beaten fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita last November.

“He couldn’t put it together,” Baffert said.

In the Gold Cup, Improbable stalked the pace under jockey Drayden Van Dyke and pulled clear to win by 3 1/4 lengths over Higher Power, winner of the 2019 Pacific Classic. Owned by the partnership of WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, and SF Racing, Improbable has won 5 of 12 starts and earned $1,129,520.

“We’re happy with the horse,” Baffert said. “This is what you want him to do – win Grade 1 races on the dirt.”