Improbable signals he's back with Shared Belief win

DEL MAR, Calif. – The first half of the year was hardly a disaster for Improbable, but it wasn’t as good as those closest to him hoped. Now, following some time off, he’s set for a potential strong second half of the year.

In his first start since the Preakness Stakes, Improbable was comfortable winner on Sunday at Del Mar in the $98,000 Shared Belief Stakes for 3-year-olds, easily holding safe the previously unbeaten King Jack to win by 2 3/4 lengths.

It was a means to an end. After the race, his trainer, Bob Baffert, said “now we can look at something like the Mile,” referring to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, run at the same distance as the Shared Belief, on Nov. 2 at Santa Anita.

Improbable won the first three starts of his career, all at 2, concluding that campaign with a victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. Earlier this year, he was second in a division of the Rebel, then second in the Arkansas Derby to Omaha Beach, before crossing the wire fifth in the Kentucky Derby and finishing sixth in the Preakness, having been favored in the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

Along the way, he underwent three changes of riders, and experimented with blinkers in the Arkansas Derby. After the Preakness, the reset button was hit. Baffert in the Shared Belief reunited Improbable with Drayden Van Dyke, who had ridden him in his first four starts, and put blinkers back on him. But Baffert admitted he didn’t fully commit to the Shared Belief until Omaha Beach was taken out of consideration for the race.

“I wasn’t going to run,” Baffert said.

That development, plus a strong gate work here on Aug. 18, convinced Baffert it was time to bring Improbable back.

Only four went to the post for the Shared Belief, following the scratches of longshots Seven Scents and Stubbins. Lieutenant Dan went for the lead, but Improbable was sent away from the gate and was right with him through an opening quarter in 23.17 seconds and half in 46.63 seconds. Improbable began to inch away nearing the quarter pole, after six furlongs in 1:10.75, and was never in danger through the lane.

King Jack finished 6 1/4 lengths in front of Lieutenant Dan, and Street Class trailed throughout.

Improbable completed one mile on the fast main track in 1:37.53. As the favorite, he paid $3.40.

“I put the blinkers back on him, and told Drayden to send him,” Baffert said. “He got pretty tough around the first turn. But I think that’s how he wants to be ridden.

“I’m really happy with his race. I didn’t think I had him quite as ready as he could be, but his class carried him through.”

Improbable, a son of City Zip, has now won four times in eight starts. He is owned by Win Star Farm, China Horse Club, and Starlight Racing.