Improbable shows what he's capable of with impressive win in Hollywood Gold Cup

Improbable was the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in 2019, a season in which he was unable to win the top races in the 3-year-old division.

The situation may be different for Improbable as a 4-year-old this year.

Improbable won his second start of 2020 in Saturday’s Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita, the colt’s first win at the highest level since the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in December 2018.

:: Start earning weekly cashback on your wagering today. Click to learn more.

The manner in which Improbable won the $300,500 Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles suggests he can play a leading role in key distance races this year.

Ridden by Drayden Van Dyke for trainer Bob Baffert, Improbable ($4.60) stalked pacesetter Brown Storm to the turn, took the lead with three furlongs remaining, and won comfortably by 3 1/2 lengths over 3-1 Higher Power. Improbable ran 1 1/4 miles in 2:01.69 and earned a caeer-best Beyer Speed Figure of 105.

“I felt like I had a lot of horse on the backstretch and into the final turn,” Van Dyke said in a phone interview shortly after the race. “He was sitting on a big one. There were some nice horses in there and he beat them fairly easily.”

“He did everything perfectly.”

Brown Storm (14-1) set early fractions of 23.24 seconds for the opening quarter-mile and 47.57 for a half-mile, closely followed by Improbable.

Higher Power was third on the backstretch, but posed no threat to Improbable in the stretch. Higher Power finished 4 1/2 lengths in front of third-place finisher Tenfold (9-1). Brown Storm finished fourth, followed by Midcourt and Parsimony.

Higher Power won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar last August and was later third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita in November. The Hollywood Gold Cup was Higher Power’s first start since he finished last of 10 as the 5-2 favorite in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational at Gulfstream Park in January.

Midcourt, the 2-1 second choice in the Gold Cup, broke poorly and raced on the rail early on the backstretch. He was last on the turn and finished 23 3/4 lengths behind Improbable.

Trainer John Shirreffs, who won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby earlier in the day with Honor A. P., described Midcourt's start in the Gold Cup as an “awful beginning.”

“Then he's behind horses and tries to go through inside,” Shirreffs said. “He had to check, then he goes outside. Too many things working against him. He was unable to get into any sort of a rhythm. Physically, he's fine. He just had one of the worst trips imaginable.”

Improbable, a 4-year-old colt by City Zip, has won 5 of 12 starts and earned $1,129,520, all for the partnership of WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International and SF Racing. In the 2019 Triple Crown, Improbable was fourth at 4-1 in the Kentucky Derby and sixth at 5-2 in the Preakness Stakes.

Earlier this spring, Improbable was second to Tom’s d’Etat in the Oaklawn Mile at Oaklawn Park on April 11.

Improbable was entered in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap on May 2, but was withdrawn in favor of Saturday’s Gold Cup.

“He was training really great for this,” Baffert said. “He’d been doing everything well. Drayden rode a good race. He was in the perfect spot.”

- additional reporting by Jay Privman