Improbable roars past Maximum Security in Awesome Again

ARCADIA, Calif. – There always has been a horse of the same age in trainer Bob Baffert’s barn who was perceived as superior to Improbable. At age 2, it was Game Winner, the divisional champ. Last year, Improbable never really separated himself from Game Winner and Roadster. And this year, once Maximum Security arrived in Baffert’s barn, again Improbable was overshadowed.

But he may not be Eclipsed.

Improbable on Saturday put himself in position to make a bid for both Horse of the Year and champion older dirt male when he competes in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 7 at Keeneland, his next stop after a "Win and You’re In" victory in the Grade 1, $300,000 Awesome Again at Santa Anita. His win came at the direct expense of Maximum Security, who was favored but was no match for Improbable’s stretch kick in a race that played out ideally for Improbable.

Sure, he got help, with his four rivals, as it looked on paper, engaging in a battle that was detrimental to all. But Improbable is a vastly superior horse at age 4 to what he was at age 3. He powered home 4 1/2 lengths clear of Maximum Security in the 1 1/8-mile Awesome Again to give him his third straight Grade 1 victory, following the Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June and the Whitney at Saratoga in August. His only loss this year came in his 2020 debut, when second to Tom’s d’Etat following a wide trip in the Oaklawn Mile. He’ll get a chance to avenge that defeat in six weeks, as both are ticketed to the Classic.

“He’s a much better horse this year,” Baffert said following the race. “He’s filled out. He was a lighter horse last year. He was immature. He can still be a handful. But the talent has always been there.”

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Improbable ($5.60) was the second choice to Maximum Security, who was 1-2, with the other three entrants 9-1 and higher. Improbable has had trouble in the gate in the past, but he broke cleanly under Drayden Van Dyke, who watched the other four entrants sail off into the distance.

Take the One O One led early, with Sleepy Eyes Todd and Maximum Security alongside, and then Midcourt came outside those three to push the pace along. They went the opening quarter in 23.33 seconds, the half in 46.36 seconds, and six furlongs in 1:09.79. Too fast.

“Drayden just sat back. He rode a great race. He knew what was going on,” Baffert said.

Improbable began his rally on the far turn, and vaulted from last to first in the quarter mile from the three-furlong pole to the furlong pole. He was up by three lengths at midstretch and coasted home in 1:49.01 for 1 1/8 miles on the fast main track.

Maximum Security ran a courageous race in defeat, holding off Midcourt to finish second by a half-length. He was no match for his stablemate, but the race shape was against him.

“Max finished gallantly,” Baffert said. “He fended off all the speed. Max did all the work. He did all the heavy lifting.”

Take the One O One faded to fourth, and Sleepy Eyes Todd trailed.

Improbable, 4, is a son of City Zip who is owned by a partnership of WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International, and SF Racing. He has now won seven times in 14 starts, and the $180,000 first prize on Saturday brought his bankroll to more than $1.7 million. He is 3 for 4 at Santa Anita.

“He loves this track,” Baffert said.

Now Baffert has six weeks to prepare both Improbable and Maximum Security for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which will mark the first time both colts have raced in the state of Kentucky since last year’s Derby, in which Maximum Security was famously disqualified, and Improbable crossed the wire fifth – then was moved to fourth – as the lukewarm favorite.

One of the reasons Baffert ran both against one another Saturday was because it gave him ideal spacing toward their ultimate goal.

“I hated running those two together,” he said. But now, he added, “I’ve got plenty of time to get them ready.”