Improbable looking good for Rebel

As Improbable cruised through the stretch during a workout last Sunday at Los Alamitos, trainer Bob Baffert channeled his inner Trevor Denman.

“He’s moving like a winner,” Baffert said, mimicking Denman, as Improbable glided to the wire.

Improbable is a horse who constantly touts himself, and he’s been giving off all the right vibes of late, with a sharp series of drills in preparation for his first start as a 3-year-old. He’s an eye-catching chestnut-colored colt by City Zip who moves fast while appearing to do it effortlessly.

That talent has brought him three wins in three starts and a position at or near the top of anyone’s Kentucky Derby rankings, along with stablemate Game Winner. Both traveled to Oaklawn Park for the Grade 2 Rebel on Saturday, and Improbable will get the first chance to shine, as he ended up in the first of the two $750,000 divisions – race 8 of 11.

There are eight entered against Improbable, but the field looks as though it could shrink. The maiden Proud Nation is completely overmatched, and since he is owned by Gary and Mary West – who own Game Winner – he looks like a horse entered to make sure the Rebel split, which it did. The most significant rivals for Improbable look like fellow California invaders Extra Hope and Galilean, but if Improbable picks up where he left off they’re all running for second.

Improbable had an ambitious late-season campaign at 2. He beat maidens at Santa Anita in his debut Sept. 29, shipped to Churchill Downs to win the Street Sense Stakes on Breeders’ Cup weekend, then finished off his season with a powerhouse victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, run at the Rebel distance of 1 1/16 miles, and earning a robust 96 Beyer Speed Figure.

New environs don’t appear to matter to Improbable. This will be his fourth start, at four different racetracks, and though he had to be rerouted to Los Alamitos last weekend for his final drill owing to the suspension of training on Santa Anita’s main track, he looked like he’d been there for months instead of a couple of days.

Improbable drew the outside post, but has the kind of contending speed that should afford him a good trip under his regular rider Drayden Van Dyke.

“He skips over the ground,” Baffert said. “I love his athleticism. He’s quick. He’s got speed. He can use that to his advantage.”

Since Baffert entered two horses in the Rebel and it split, his runners were put in different divisions. The same policy was afforded fellow Californians Jerry Hollendorfer and Richard Mandella.

Galilean, the Hollendorfer runner who ended up in this half, is taking several significant steps. This will be his first race in open company, his first graded stakes, and his first time out of California. He has dominated California-bred competition in his last two starts, winning by a combined margin of 13 1/2 lengths, and is unbeaten around two turns.

Extra Hope, the Mandella representative here, was a distant third behind Improbable in the Los Alamitos Futurity in his final start at 2, and in his only race since then walloped a first-level allowance field. He has plenty of experience, having raced seven times, but this, too, will be his first time out of California. Flavien Prat had ridden him in his last three starts, but since he chose to ride Galilean, Mike Smith will take over.

The other California invader is Easy Shot, a Keith Desormeaux trainee who was a respectable third in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis last month.

The locals are headed by Long Range Toddy, who was third last month in the Grade 3 Southwest after finishing second in the Smarty Jones in January.

Steve Asmussen trains Long Range Toddy, and also has the longshot Ninth Street in this division; Asmussen has four in the second half of the race. Ninth Street was well beaten in the Southwest at 104-1.

Early pace could be provided by Classy John, who has three wins and two seconds in five starts, all for trainer Dallas Stewart. As with Galilean, he also is taking a big jump in class, having faced Louisiana-breds in his last three outings.