Illman's preview: Looking for a pick six longshot?

A diamond in the rough

If you’re looking for a wacky longshot to spice up your pick six ticket - there is a $23,709 carryover into Friday’s twilight card – consider Holiday’s Jewel in the eighth race, an entry-level allowance for fillies and mares at 1 1/16 miles.

Holiday’s Jewel isn’t exactly a prolific winner, but the battle-tested mare is facing some rivals that, thus far, must be considered underachievers.

Take Dowager, for example. The daughter of A.P. Indy needed five tries to win her maiden, and did so at 1-10 in a very suspect field over the Aqueduct inner track. In her subsequent outing, she showed no fight when confronted by Parc Monceau, and ended up only a head better than Holiday’s Jewel.

What about Previous? While the Juddmonte-owned, Bill Mott-trained filly still retains some promise, she wasn’t able to stave off Very Cherry Candy four weeks ago after getting the jump on that rival turning for home. Very Cherry Candy returned to toss in a clunker on yesterday’s card.

Mei Ling, anyone? She cost $500,000 as a yearling, but needed a muddy track to win her maiden. Last out, her first try against winners, she finished 11 lengths behind Previous.

Another Incident’s lone tally came for a $30,000 tag over a wet track at Churchill Downs last fall. Simply Spectacular was 19-1 when graduating last month over a filly that came back to lose on Wednesday.

That leaves Hot Splash, an honest performer who returns to her favorite track. Hot Splash can certainly win this race, although I wasn’t thrilled with the way she coughed up a big lead most recently, albeit in the mud.

Holiday’s Jewel is not a star, but she was hung out widest last time, a race with no pace won by a favorite who went gate to wire and ran away and hid. In fact, Holiday’s Jewel faced impressive winners in her last five races, with the margins of victory ranging from 4 3/4 lengths (Hot Stones, entered in Saturday’s Bed o’ Roses) to 6 1/2 lengths (Belle Gallantey, recently beaten less than two lengths in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes).

Holiday’s Jewel could work out a decent stalking trip. She's worth a small stab to get a piece, at the very least, at a nice mutuel.

Selections: 3-4-6

Bay of Biscay solid

A more logical selection is Bay of Biscay in the opener, and he should be leaned on in the opening leg of the 50-cent pick five. Bay of Biscay, a $750,000 yearling purchase, improved when stretched out around a route of ground for the first time on May 24. He faced Encryption, an up-and-coming colt that returned to place in the Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes last weekend with an 88 Beyer.

As a son of Giant’s Causeway, Bay of Biscay might appreciate this nine-furlong distance. He has better tactical speed than Kato, the second choice on the morning line, and should get the jump on that rival turning for home.

Selections: 1-6-2

Horses to Watch

GOLDEN RIFLE
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: June 19, 1st
Finish: 1st by 2 3/4
Beyer: 95
He didn’t beat the strongest N2X optional-claiming field, but looked very good striding out down the stretch for Javier Castellano. The Ghostzapper colt was close to the pace throughout and still came home in 22.40 with a final eighth in 11.38. Undefeated in three starts since being claimed by Brown and switched to turf sprints, Golden Rifle looks destined for a stakes appearance.