Illman's Belmont preview for Friday, Sept. 19

Friday, Sept. 19, preview

STAKES-QUALITY FILLIES

Friday’s third race, a statebred allowance for fillies and mares at one mile, features some talented runners. Mike Hushion sends out the coupled entry of Girlabouttown and Star Grazing. The former’s only loss came over a muddy track in her debut, and she overcame a bumbling beginning to win her most recent start at Saratoga over Blithely, a filly who returned to win here earlier in the week.

Although Star Grazing has yet to earn a sexy speed figure, the Sky Mesa filly has shown versatility in capturing three consecutive starts.

They’ll have to down the older Sunny Desert, a five-time stakes-winner who caught wet tracks in her last two races. Most recently, she enjoyed a decent rail-skimming trip at Saratoga but might have been a bit short for that race, her first since late March. She can sit just off the early leaders while in the clear and could very well be the mare to beat.

I’ll take a slight stab with Carameaway, who pulled off a mild upset in the $100,000 Saratoga Dew Stakes over nine furlongs at the Spa. Carameaway never looked in danger in that spot and has returned with a pair of bullet workouts. You may want to tread lightly, however, as Carameaway’s two best figures have come over wet tracks.

SPLIT DIVISIONS ON TURF

Both divisions of an N2X optional claimer at one mile on the Widener course offer excellent wagering opportunities.

Helm, an Augustin Stable homebred trained by Graham Motion, is the preferred selection in the fifth race. Although winless from two tries on turf, Helm ran well most recently in a similar event at Saratoga on Aug. 6. The gelding tracked 3 to 4 paths wide most of the way when third behind gate-to-wire winner Silver Freak and was flattered when the fourth-place finisher returned to Beyer a career-high 90 in his subsequent outing.

With speedsters Readthebyline and Dangerous Lad scheduled to compete, Helm should get a much better pace setup this time around. He has the tactical speed to tuck in behind those horses and should be prominent when the real racing begins.

Monument Hill looms a logical contender, but he hasn’t been out in more than two months, and trainer George Weaver is 0 for 24 over the past few years with horses returning from 61- to 180-day layoffs, according to DRF Formulator. Plus, Monument Hill is stepping up a bit in class after a good trip at Saratoga. He could prove an underlay at his 7-2 morning line.

Where’s Danny is a longshot who should be considered if there is some cut in the ground, as his best turf efforts have come over “good” or “yielding” footing.

Other contenders include Inchcape, a colt who should revert to rating tactics after showing speed in an 11-furlong heat at Saratoga; Which Market, a Gary Contessa reclaim; and Cousin Stephen, who tries turf for the first time for high-percentage conditioner Chad Brown.

Unlike the first division, the eighth race doesn’t have much in the way of early speed. That could favor McIlroy, my top pick. Trained by Chad Brown, McIlroy showed good tactical zip in winning his most recent start at Saratoga and should be on or near the expected tepid pace under Jose Ortiz. The reformed claimer seems to have put it together for Brown and is worth a stab at close to his 6-1 morning line in a contentious affair.

Barrel of Love drops out of some salty statebred spots that featured the likes of Compliance Officer, Lubash, Notacatbutallama, and King Kreesa. The veteran fits very well at this level and could work out a pace-tracking, ground-saving trip under Manny Franco.

Middleburg is a consistent sort for Christophe Clement who has settled for minor awards in his last four races, all at 4-1 odds or less. He’ll get bet again, but it looked like he hung on the money two starts back. Demand value.

Brickyard Kitten failed to parlay a good inside trip into a victory last time but looks to be moving forward in his third start of the form cycle.

Live In Joy shot through a gigantic opening along the inside to down $40,000 claimers and was taken by Bruce Brown. He has some back class and isn’t out of this.

HORSE TO WATCH

FIRST BID
Trainer: Linda Rice
Last race: Sept. 17, 6th
Finish: 1st by 2 3/4
Beyer: 92
Shrugged away pace foe Broadway Zen and always had enough to fend off odds-on favorite Classic Sense in the stretch. This was his first start since being claimed for $50,000 by Linda Rice, and he would be a solid contender in an entry-level allowance race going a route of ground.