Illman: Saratoga pick three play for Monday, July 21
Let's try an early pick three.
Race 1
Although No. 6 Curious Cal and No. 8 Greg’s Fourwheeler exit the fastest race, a one-mile statebred maiden special weight at Belmont, I'm not sure if I trust the form of that heat.
Curious Cal should appreciate turning back in distance as he was exhausted in the final sixteenth, but he has failed to gain late ground in any of his other races.
Greg's Fourwheeler still seems very green, and his trainer, the solid Tom Bush, does much better with turf performers.
Using Ticketmaker, I'll try to get through this leg with three “A” plays and a single backup.
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A – No. 2 DUSK TO DAWN
First-time gelding has high speed for a very dangerous trainer. Although he’s faltered badly in both prior starts, he might attempt to shake loose early.
A – No. 3 SHIMBA
A $320,000 purchase, Shimba made his debut in a turf race that produced two next-out winners. He shows a bullet workout on the dirt leading up to this heat and needn't be a superstar to have an impact
A – No. 6 CURIOUS CAL
Was debating whether I should play Curious Cal as merely a backup, but decided to use him as a major player considering that his last three Beyer Speed Figures are faster than anything the rest of the field has ever produced.
C – No. 9 KEEN'S CUPLA
Second-time starter gave a solid rally to place behind a favored winner in his debut. He shows a quick recent workout and can factor with normal improvement.
Race 2
It’s a baby race for turf sprinters, so take a peek at the early daily double will-pays for any noteworthy tote action. Strictly off the past performances, I'll use one “A” play and a pair of backups.
A – No. 2 PARTISAN POLITICS
This filly is bred both sides for turf success, and trainer Chad Brown is 4 for 11 (36 percent, $2.97 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight turf sprints at Saratoga.
B – No. 6 SASHAY
By a very underrated sire that clicks with 25 percent of his juvenile debut performers, Sashay has reportedly been working very nicely for Christophe Clement.
B – No. 8 RAINHA DA BATERIA
She has a very strong pedigree as a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winners Kindergarten Kid and Assateague. Another half-sibling, He's Had Enough, finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Race 3
A starter allowance for sprinters closes out the sequence. I'll use two main plays and one backup.
A – No. 1 ANNIE WALKER
Mike Hushion-trained filly absolutely toyed with a weak statebred maiden field last time out. She should be on or near the lead from the inside post.
A – No. 4 ANOTHER INCIDENT
Takes a class drop after facing entry-level allowance foes at Belmont. She might appreciate cutting back in distance and should be running late
B – No. 5 WRAITH
Might not have been comfortable racing down inside during the early portion of her most recent start. Once switched to the outside, she came with a belated late run.
