Illman: Saratoga pick four play for Friday, July 31

Let’s try to exploit some vulnerable favorites in Friday’s late Pick 4 sequence.

Race 7
Tennessee (10) was all the rage for his debut at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher, but he ran into eventual Grade 3 winner Grand Bili and had to settle for second. I didn’t like the way he hopped back to his left lead once confronted in the lane and he now must travel a demanding seven furlongs off an almost six-month layoff. Tennessee can certainly win, but he isn’t going to offer much value and there are other better-priced horses to consider in this wager.

Kabang (2) ran a big race last time out and I really like the cutback in distance this afternoon. In that start on June 14, Kabang was embroiled in four-ply pace dispute, emerged with the lead and was only outfinished by a pair of late-kickers that had the run of the race. Kabang finished ahead of two next-out winners (one of them returned to graduate at Monmouth with a 96 Beyer Speed Figure). He seems very well spotted.

Choir Director (6) broke slowly in his debut, which came for Nick Zito, a trainer that very rarely has first-time starters cranked up to win. Choir Director made a sharp wide move into contention on the turn before being outkicked by a winner that received a 102 Beyer. The race was flattered when the third-finisher returned to score at Delaware with a 78 Beyer. Choir Director should be tight with that race under his girth and he looms a late threat.

For the backups, let’s use Street Jersey (1), a colt receiving Lasix and blinkers for Barclay Tagg, and Revelation (9), a runner making the second start following a long layoff.

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Race 8
I’m against Sandy’z Slew (6), who would be returning on only three days' rest after failing to change leads late in the $100,000 Lucky Coin Stakes. This isn’t a move that trainer Rick Schosberg utilizes very often and Sandy’z Slew could be vulnerable as the morning-line favorite.

Instead I’ll focus on the following:

Manhattan Johnnie (3) has big early speed, was part of a wicked pace last time out on dirt, and seems to have enough pedigree to handle the turf.

Brickyard Kitten (5) isn’t very reliable, but he’s consistent enough and should get some pace to attack late.

Pure Sensation (9) showed an affinity for the turf last summer, drops in class and returns as a gelding with blinkers off for a top barn.

Late-running Tripski (1) and multiple stakes winner Yes I’m Lucky (4) are the backups.

Race 9
You can have the ouchy Touchofstarquality (6), a 5-year-old that has started only six times. It’s worth noting that he doesn’t show a workout in over two weeks and takes a significant hike in class.

Let’s try to score with Matterhorn (2), a Pletcher product that drew into an off-the-turf race at Belmont and won in “ridden out” fashion. That race was over sloppy going and he would appreciate any residual moisture left in the track from yesterday’s rainstorm.

Our Caravan (4), who showed grit as a first-time gelding against the returning Normandy Invasion, deserves a look as a back-up, as does Big Looie (7), a speedy sort that could be challenged at this distance.

Race 10
Hardcore (4) showed high speed in his debut at Gulfstream when finishing ahead of three next-out winners, but has been away for almost five months, and trainer Wesley Ward’s ROI at Saratoga over the past five years stands at a paltry $0.69.

May Flowers (7) has been knocking on the door for Jeremiah Englehart and has enough speed to stay within range of Hardcore in the early going. He’s performed well over turf with some give to it and figures close when the field turns into the stretch.

Zip’s Legacy (8) is a first-time starter by the good turf stallion City Zip out of a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Star of the Bay. Mark Casse can get an inexperienced horse ready in a hurry.

Nimble Foot (11) finished willingly behind May Flowers on July 10 and might have found her niche as a turf sprinter.