Illman: Pimlico pick four play for Friday, May 15
This is a salty pick four sequence. It features four stakes races, three graded events, and full competitive fields. It also boasts a guaranteed $250,000 pool with a 50-cent minimum bet. I decided to find one single so that I could spread in the other races. Let's take a peek.
Race 8 - Miss Preakness Stakes
It's wide-open with a ton of speed. That might not bode well for Enchanting Lady (1), a fleet filly stuck down on the rail. Enchanting Lady is talented. She popped a 98 Beyer two starts back at Santa Anita, but bombed at a short price two weeks ago in the Eight Belles. She was climbing leaving the gate and never seemed to get a handle on the racetrack at Churchill Downs. Perhaps it's correct to simply draw a line through that race, but the fact remains that she will likely have to overcome heavy pace pressure in order to win this. I'm going to try and beat her in the pick four with these contenders (Ticketmaker levels in parentheses after program number):
Miss Ella (3, A) - Undefeated filly showed the ability to rate and finish last month at Keeneland. She will get pace to attack here from stalking range.
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Irish Jasper (9, A) - If the pace completely falls apart, this could be the right closer. She just upset a five-horse field of questionable quality as the longest shot in the board so one can still question her talent level as she steps up in class. That was her first start without blinkers, however, and she seemed more relaxed in the early part of the race. She's more of a race shape play.
Huasca (11, A) - Didn't beat much in her last race at Gulfstream, but can be forwardly placed while in the clear. She is capable of some good efforts, though, as evidenced by her game runner-up placing behind Black-Eyed Susan entrant Include Betty in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Jan. 31.
Windy Forecast (2, B) - Expect her to relax better without blinkers and with Gary Stevens aboard. Dirt is her best surface and she should be tighter in her second start of the year.
Divine Dawn (6, B) - Have always been a fan of this filly. Think she was down on a deep rail when second to Miss Ella in the Beaumont last time out.
Coco's Wildcat (7, B) - She's a bit of a reach as she's on a losing streak. She does boast improving Beyers and gets a nice rider switch to Paco Lopez for her third start of the form cycle.
Race 9 - Jim McKay Turf Sprint
Is Ben's Cat (3) getting long in the tooth? It's certainly possible, but my bet is his last race was merely a prep for the Jim McKay. In that spot, Bold Thunder (7) grabbed an easy lead and couldn't be caught. Ben's Cat, making his first start off the bench, tried hard and was very game for second. I can't let either one knock me out of the bet. Both Bold Thunder and Ben's Cat are "A" plays on my Ticketmaker tickets.
As "B" backups, I will use Dreamsgonewild (8) and Amelia's Wild Ride (9). Dreamsgonewild returns off a layoff, but was good enough to set a track record in a key race at Laurel two back. Amelia's Wild Ride might have disliked the wet turf course at Keeneland. If the rain stays away, he is expected to revert to his good Gulfstream efforts.
Race 10 - Allaire duPont Distaff Stakes
I have never been a big fan of Stopchargingmaria (2), but she probably gained needed conditioning from her recent sprint at Keeneland. Extra distance is what she wants. I will use her as an "A" but will also spread with these rivals in case she throws in a clunker:
Before You Know It (7, A) - Hard-hitting mare has won five of her last eight races. Last time out, she was ridden with much confidence while stalking a slow pace from the outside. Unfortunately for her, the pacesetter put up a good fight in the stretch and that battle sufficiently softened both of them up for favored House Rules in the stretch. Perhaps this distance is a bit far, but I don't think it’s the toughest field in the world and Before You Know It is in form.
Yahilwa (10, A) - I liked her race in the Sixty Sails. She stumbled terribly at the start and raced in and among horses before asserting her superiority in the stretch. She has put up consecutive good efforts in the past, loves this distance, and seems very nicely spotted.
Lunar Surge (1, B) - Late-running mare likes to race inside and she drew the rail. She almost overcame a speed-friendly Keeneland surface last month with a rail-skimming ride. She has gotten good for George Weaver and deserves some respect in this wager.
Fortune Pearl (5, B) - Was tempted with making this horse an "A" but ultimately relegated her to back-up status. She showed ability last year at three and overcame a very difficult pace situation in her return to the races. I have a feeling she will be one of the "wise guy" horses on the card.
Race 11, Black-Eyed Susan
I hate singling short-priced horses when they're doing the unknown, but I will have faith that Bob Baffert has Luminance (8) ready to stretch out to nine furlongs. She did the dirty work in the Santa Anita Oaks before giving way to the very talented Stellar Wind. She will be close to the pace in the Black-Eyed Susan, and I hope that the stamina deep in her female family helps her pull through.
A caveman ticket with all of these horses would cost $60 for a 50-cent minimum.
My Ticketmaker play costs $96 dollars, but I will collect three times the minimum if all of my A plays, my strongest opinions, win. If one B and three A's score, I will have the pick four twice. If two B's and two A's complete the bet, I will collect the 50-cent minimum.
Good luck!

