Illman: Pick three play for Keeneland on Saturday, April 18
Keeneland’s Saturday card is a solid one. It features some long-distance turf performers in the Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes as well as the 3-year-old debut of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hootenanny.
Let’s play a small pick three:
Race 6
Multiple graded stakes winner Delaunay (5) seems to have a speed figure and class edge on this field. After two wins at Fair Grounds to kick off his winter campaign, Delaunay gave a good effort when second to the streaking Bet Seattle in the Duncan F. Kenner Stakes on Feb. 21.
Perhaps jockey James Graham was a bit too tentative with the millionaire coming out of the gate. He allowed Bet Seattle to clear to the lead and that was all she wrote despite Delaunay trying hard all the way to the wire.
Delaunay is fast and tactical. He’s probably quick enough to wire this field, but his good outside post gives Graham options. He is, by far, the most likely winner of the race.
If you must use a backup, consider Rock Fall (4), a lightly raced 4-year-old trained by Todd Pletcher. Rock Fall (4) has won three straight races and has a strong amount of upside potential.
Caveman: 4,5
Tickemaker: A – 5; C – 4
Race 7
I’ll use the logical runners in this grassy maiden special weight along with an intriguing bomber.
Seeking Alpha (5) doesn’t have a pedigree that screams turf, but the Medaglia d’Oro colt showed decent speed against promising sophomores Unbridled Juan and Wisecracker on dirt at Gulfstream.
Animal Kracker (10) was extremely wide in his first start of the year and then flattened out against next-out Keeneland winner Danish Dynaformer at Gulfstream on Feb. 21. The Team Valor-owned colt needs some pace to run at but seems likely to improve.
Honestly, I’m most interested in Fors Fortis (11), a 30-1 shot on the morning line. The gelding made his career debut on dirt last fall and did nothing in a six-furlong dirt affair. That non-effort doesn’t bother me in the slightest as Fors Fortis is bred for turf.
Although the sire does poorly with first-turf performers (he is 2 for 78), Henrythenavigator won four Group 1 races on grass overseas. This is the female family of multiple Grade 1 turf winner Denon.
Fors Fortis adds Lasix for a barn that boasts a $4.11 ROI over the past five years going dirt to turf and a $2.44 ROI with horses moving from sprint to route.
Fors Fortis is going to be a great price Saturday. If he upsets this field, the pick three could pay very well.
Caveman: 5,10,11
Ticketmaker: A – 5,10,11
Race 8
I’m against the morning-line favorite Warriorscmoutoplay (9). That one already has had several chances to win her maiden to no avail.
Instead, I’ll try a couple of fresh faces. Spinning Wheel (7) is a half-sister to Ride On Curlin with some sharp workouts on display. Rusty Arnold doesn’t have good numbers with first-time starters, but Spinning Wheel may have found a field lacking star quality.
Goodlookinlucky (5) is out of a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner You. She shows a couple of nice local workouts for trainer Ian Wilkes and doesn’t have to be Zenyatta to win this race.
Caveman: 5, 7
Ticketmaker: A – 7; B - 5