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Gulfstream Park

Illman: Pick four play for Gulfstream Park on Friday, Dec. 26

Dan Illman|Dec 24, 2014

I’m filing this early due to the Christmas holiday. Hopefully, the weather and scratches will be kind.

Race 7

A ho-hum maiden claimer opens the sequence, and I will try to defeat the two morning-line favorites, SCUBA SUE (3) and CATSKILL FLYER (7). Scuba Sue has never been this cheap, but has burned a ton of money during her short career and has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire. Catskill Flyer can certainly improve with the addition of Lasix, but her lone good race came at 40- 1 over a sloppy track and she’ll be a fraction of that price here.

Instead, I’ll use CHERI’S WIN (1), LION SOUL (8), and VERO’S DREAM (9). Cheri’s Win was dismissed by the betting public for her career debut earlier in the month, but ran quite well in dropping a photo to odds-on favorite Yes Blue. She had to alter course sharply turning for home, rallied stoutly in the stretch, and galloped out with vigor. She would have won if the distance was six furlongs and one jump. The inside post position is worrisome, but she should be right there with normal second-out improvement.

I liked Lion Soul when she debuted at Gulfstream West last month. She took some money, but was no match for the two chalks after moving to the inside in the stretch. A slight drop in class could be just what the doctor ordered, and her trainer, Ralph Nicks, has gotten off to a hot start at this meet.
Vero’s Dream is the backup on my Ticketmaker play. She showed marked improvement in her first start over this surface when behind Cheri’s Win on Dec. 7. The connections thought enough to shell out $16,000 for her back in October. Perhaps, she’s slowly figuring this game out and will be a good price.

Caveman ticket: 1, 8, 9

Ticketmaker ticket
A: 1, 8
B: 9

Race 8
I had some trouble with this race because I don’t particularly trust the most likely winner, MELVILLE (1). Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the Darley homebred ran two excellent figures in New York to begin his career, but one could argue that he should have won both of those races. He dropped late leads both times and was quirky with his lead changes at Aqueduct on Nov. 13. He’s a horse that I’d never bet to win at a short price, but I can’t let him knock me out of the pick four. He should work out a decent ground-saving trip from the rail under Javier Castellano.

SUM UP (5) is an intriguing first-time starter trained by Christophe Clement. He’s a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 dirt winner Turbulent Descent, and the third dam, Gorgeous, earned more than $1 million. There is enough turf buried in this pedigree to indicate he’ll handle the surface.

CUPPA JOE (3) has been knocking on the door and he didn’t have the best trip when the beaten favorite at Gulfstream West last month. He was three to four wide for the opening half-mile and was steadied when attempting to angle in and split horses late on the backstretch. Despite the adversity, he finished well for third.

VEYA (10) has dirty form, and that could help his price. Throw out his last two races on the main track as the Giant’s Causeway half-brother to Irish 2000 Guineas winner Bachelor Duke is better on the grass. Three back, he was three wide around both turns when second in a race that produced three next-out winners. Expect more patient tactics without blinkers.

Caveman: 1, 3, 5, 10

Ticketmaker
A : 1, 3, 5, 10

Race 9

MIDNIGHT CELLO (4) looks like the horse to beat. In his last five dirt starts, he received Beyer Speed Figures of 100, 96, 97, 93, and 93. Yet, his form is muddled by several failed efforts on grass. It appears that trainer Marcus Vitali has realized that Midnight Cello is a dirt horse, and a pretty solid one at that. He was good when second in the Eight Miles West Stakes two starts back. While stablemate Valid, who returned to give the undefeated Liam’s Map a fright earlier at this meet, had a dream run up the inside, Midnight Cello broke a half-step slow, was three to four wide around both turns, and may have moved prematurely to boot. He finished ahead of Stormin Monarcho in that race, and that horse returned to win two stakes in a row.

I’m not PURPLE EGG’s (5) biggest fan, but he put up a good effort last time while bogged down on the rail. He faced a quality sprinter in Bahamian Squall that day and has enough tactical speed to be within range of the leaders when the real racing begins.

BROTHERSOFTHETIME (3) is a price alternative. He returns to trainer Antonio Sano, a conditioner that prepared Brothersofthetime for at third-place effort in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes here last spring. He boasts improving Beyers but is somewhat of a reach. I’ll use him only as a backup.

Caveman: 3, 4, 5

Ticketmaker
A
: 4
B: 3, 5

Race 10

We close out the sequence, and the card, with a difficult turf claimer. CHEYENNE NATION (7) is logical making his first start for trainer Chad Brown. The veteran likes to win, seems ideally spotted at this class level, and exits a quick race over yielding going. I think he’s better on firm turf, and he should be salty if the weather holds up.

My wacky price idea is MAN O’BEAR (8). He’s only raced once previously on grass, but was hardly disgraced in the $251,000 Cup and Saucer Stakes at Woodbine. He gamely chased an odds-on winner most recently over the Polytrack, and a three-quarter sibling won on turf. He’s 20-1 on the morning line and worth considering at that price.

SNEAKY KITTEN (3) does not like to win (23-2-10-3 lifetime), but he’s never been this cheap and was up against it from a class and pace standpoint at Aqueduct on Nov. 12. You can’t trust him, but he almost has to run well at this reduced level.

DYNAMIC BOY (9) is a deep backup at good odds. If you throw out his last two dirt races, you’re left with a consistent gelding that has cracked the exacta in his four recent grass outings.

I realize I’m taking a chance in eliminating TIZ SARDONIC JOE (12) from the wager as he drops in class with potent early foot. I have concerns about him at this nine-furlong distance.

Caveman: 3, 7, 8, 9

Ticketmaker
A
: 7, 8
B: 3
C: 9

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