Illman: Los Alamitos pick three play for Saturday, Dec. 5
Let’s try at pick three at Los Alamitos on Saturday afternoon. The main goal is to beat two short-priced runners.
In the sixth race, Bob Baffert drops MAGIC MOON (#8 – 9-5 ML) all the way down to the $20,000 maiden-claiming level. Perhaps the gelding is too good for these, but it appears Baffert has given up. I don’t want to find out at a short price that this one can’t run at all.
A half-hour later, PRIVILEGED ONE (#5 – 5-2) halves in price after being walked off the track in a turf route. Perhaps he simply hated the surface, but he looked fairly uncomfortable racing on his wrong lead two starts back when beating conditioned claimers with a 72 Beyer, a number that would probably win this race. Since many of the horses he handled that day have since failed to distinguish themselves, I’ll question the overall quality of the race along with Privileged One’s recent form.
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RACE 5
It’s a fun race, pitting a horse with a dominant Beyer edge against juveniles that exit some interesting trips. UNINVITED (#7, 5-2), one of three in the field trained by Baffert, earned Beyer Figures of 70 and 71 in his last two races. On Oct. 23, he was in against the very promising Mor Ready, a colt that would be barred from the wagering if he raced in this spot. Uninvited may simply be better than these.
KIONNTAL (#3, 5-1) got a good education in his debut at Del Mar. He raced in between horses, got dirt kicked in his face, and galloped out well after an even finish. By Bellamy Road out of a Grade 3-placed turf router, Kionntal should appreciate today’s extra distance.
It’s probably too early to give up on LAOBAN (#4, 12-1), a $260,000 son of Uncle Mo out of a stakes-placed dirt sprinter. Laoban didn’t break well in his debut and can improve with the addition of blinkers.
WATCH MY DUST (#1, 4-1) would have been second on Nov. 14 had he not been forced to check severely in late stretch. Perhaps he’ll take up the early running from the inside.
LET’S MEET IN RIO (#2, 4-1) has yet to figure out the starting gate and has a turf pedigree, but he ran a 71 Beyer in his debut, a number capable of winning this.
TRISTAN’S TRILOGY (#5, 3-1), a $530,000 purchase, probably deserves another chance as this start marks his dirt-route debut. He’s likely better than his running lines indicate.
COACH Q (#6, 10-1), like Tristan’s Trilogy, cost a bundle at auction and has been campaigned recently on turf.
RACE 6
I’ll trust that Ron Ellis has UPBEAT TEMPO (#4, 2-1) ready to fire in his first start since June 6. In that race, his initial try at this class level, Upbeat Tempo made all the running only to be overhauled late by the favorite. He finished ahead of two next-out winners (Beyers of 80 and 67) and will be forwardly placed once again.
As deep backups, GAME PEGASUS (#1, 15-1) and MR. PETE GOT EVEN (#5, 15-1) merit consideration. The former tried to rally against an intensely speed-favoring track in his debut, and the runner-up from that race returned to finish second at Del Mar with a 65 Beyer. Mr. Pete Got Even is more of a stab as a 12-race maiden, but he has some numbers that put him in the mix at giant odds.
RACE 7
CAUSE UR MY BABE (#4, 4-1) exits a key race at Golden Gate and has performed well on dirt. This will be her first start for a high-percentage barn that has had success at Los Alamitos.
MY SILVER CAT (#3, 3-1) rode a speed-friendly track to a pace-pressing victory last time out. The lightly raced filly still has some upside, goes out for a top barn, and might try to take the field wire-to-window.
PRIVATE TERRACE (#6, 7-2) didn’t do much at Del Mar, but she might have been compromised by the speed bias. She is 2 for 2 at Los Alamitos.