Illman: How I'll play Saratoga on Sunday, July 21, 2019
After a one-day hiatus due to extreme temperatures, racing resumes at Saratoga this afternoon with an excellent card featuring three stakes races. The nominal feature, the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, isn't a very bettable affair as the undefeated Guarana heads a short field.
The winner of the Grade 1 Acorn on the Belmont Stakes card, Guarana must navigate nine furlongs for the first time but projects as the controlling speed and should be very tough to defeat at an extremely short price.
Here are some horses to consider (you can find expanded stakes previews and the "Spa Babies" preview of the eighth race at video.drf.com.).
Race 8
BASIN (5) ticks many boxes. A well-bet first-time starter at Churchill Downs, Basin lost a tight head bob to By Your Side, who came back to win the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes with a 74 Beyer Speed Figure. Basin's trainer, Steve Asmussen, excels with second-out juveniles. Consider this Formulator Fact:
Past five years, second-time starters, maiden special weight, dirt sprints, Saratoga: 9 for 18 (50 percent winners, 13 in the money), $3.83 ROI
Basin looks like a must-use, but handicappers should also seriously consider MR THRIFTY (7) and THREE TECHNIQUE (2). The former earned a good Beyer in his debut at Parx when on the chase throughout, and he wasn't showing any signs of quit in the stretch behind the favored winner. He has already been flattered by the next-out performance of the third finisher (graduated with a 66 Beyer). This barn popped with second-time starter Bree's Got Heart here in 2016 after a runner-up debut effort.
Race 9
This turf allowance is wide-open, so it makes sense to look for a price. I'm hoping SAINTLY SAMURAI (11) can relax off the pace in his turf debut. He improved by leaps and bounds this year after being gelded and given Lasix and blinkers, and there is some turf pedigree here. He is a half-brother to Abbot, a stakes-placed turf miler, and attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. for Graham Motion. At 15-1 on the morning line, Saintly Samurai can be given a puncher's chance.
Recent maiden winner HALLADAY (8), and late kickers HOBOE (10) and RAPT (3) deserve consideration. I will reluctantly try to beat Chad Brown's VARIANT PERCEPTION (1), a reformed claimer returning from a two-month layoff.
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Race 11
It seems foolish to try to beat Brown in these turf races, but I believe that likely favorite SIGNIFICANT FORM (4) may want slightly more ground than this 5 1/2 furlongs. MORTICIA (5) does appreciate these short sprints and is likely to get the jump on Significant Form turning into the stretch. Morticia's most recent win at Churchill Downs was nothing more than a paid workout, and she's done good work on firm Saratoga turf in the past.
Race 13
The horses to beat are SHE'S A JULIE (1) and WOW CAT (5), but the latter is returning from a lengthy layoff, and it will be interesting to see if She's a Julie regresses after some tough efforts as she attempts nine furlongs. I'll try to beat both with GOLDEN AWARD (3), who has enough tactical speed to stay within striking range of likely pacesetter She's a Julie, enough pedigree to last this trip, and enough form (a good runner-up in the duPont Distaff on Preakness weekend) to contend with the top two. She looms the third price in the Shuvee and can pull off the upset with the right trip.
Good luck today!