Illman: How I'll play Saratoga for Saturday, July 30

There are a bevy of big names on the Saturday card at Saratoga, including Flintshire and Creator, but a couple of other horses caught my eye as potential value plays. Let’s take a look:

Race 4 – Amsterdam Stakes

3 – QUIJOTE (12-1 morning line, 8-1 value line)

Quijote’s current form might be dirtied-up by circumstances and legitimate excuses. Although the beaten odds-on favorite three starts back at Charles Town, that was a two-turn sprint race that could be described as a route. I don’t think that’s Quijote’s best game. Then, he shipped to Presque Isle Downs, where he finished nowhere over a Tapeta surface that he did not appreciate at all. Last time out, he caught a muddy track and a field full of speedy older horses led by 102-Beyer winner Lewys Vaporizer.

Hopefully, Quijote will get a fast dirt track on Saturday. The last time he raced over such a surface, he popped a 91-Beyer Speed Figure when finishing ahead of Amsterdam morning-line favorite KING KRANZ (7). Although trainer Tom Amoss has mentioned that he feels Quijote is better as a closer, the gelding has enough tactical speed to stalk speedy MANIACAL (2) and shouldn’t be too far away when the field swings into the stretch.

I’ll play Quijote to win at 8-1 or greater and will use him in multiple-race and single-exotic wagers with Maniacal and sharp New York-bred MIND YOUR BISCUITS (8).

Race 8 – Allowance

3 – IDIOSYNCRATIC (6-1 morning line, 4-1 value line)

It’s fair to assume that Idiosyncratic has physical issues as the 5-year-old has only raced four times, and once since Nov. 13, 2014. That race, an entry-level allowance at Aqueduct on April 15, showed that Idiosyncratic retained the promise he showed as a 3-year-old for Chad Brown.

Far back inside off a very slow pace, Idiosyncratic simply had too much work to do in the stretch. He altered course outside in upper stretch, dropped back down to the rail very late, and was full of run to finish fifth. He galloped out very well after the fact. The winner of that race, Money Multiplier, has returned to finish second in both the Grade 1 Man o’ War Stakes and the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes with Beyers of 100 and 103, respectively.

While the subsequent layoff is concerning, Idiosyncratic is in the capable hands of trainer Chad Brown and should be running hard in the stretch once again. I’ll play him to win at 4-1 or greater and will use him with RAY’S THE BAR (5) and CIRCUS PERFORMER (6).

Here are a couple of quick horses that could be considered in single-race exotics, at the very least:

Race 3

6 – RECKLING

Wait for scratches before this race as our clockers have been extremely impressed with THEORY (11), currently first on the also-eligible list. Even it that one goes, Reckling could be a board play. A son of first-crop sire Dialed In, he’s out of a winning half-sister to three black-type earners and goes out for Steve Asmussen, who already has a 2-year-old debut winner at the meet.

Race 7

4 – CAN’THELPBELIEVING

It’s hard to imaging Flintshire getting beat in the Bowling Green, but if the favorite does stub his toe, Can’thelpbelieving might be the one to benefit. He did not have an easy trip in the United Nations when in and among horses on the backstretch and far turn, and seems to be in career form for Graham Motion.

Best of luck!