Illman: How I'll play Saratoga on Saturday, August 17, 2019
After some overnight rain, it's a gray day at Saratoga. Don't be surprised if the main track has absorbed some moisture, and the first and third races have been taken off the turf. Here are some horses to consider on the Alabama day card:
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight
I usually prefer the experienced horses to first-time starters in these baby races and Irish Mias (6) made a very nice impression last month. After breaking slowly, he made a bold move along the rail on the turn, eased out into the stretch and came with a good run to finish second to Another Miracle, who returned to win a stakes race on turf yesterday afternoon.
While Irish Mias is the horse to beat and a must-use in multiple-race wagers, I have a feeling Todd Pletcher has a fast one in Candy Tycoon (4). A half-brother to juvenile Grade 1-placed Sutton's Smile by 20% juvenile debut sire Twirling Candy, Candy Tycoon breezed a quarter-mile in 21.1 before selling for $170K in April. The second dam was a Grade 2-winning dirt sprinter and Candy Tycoon has worked very swiftly for his debut.
I prefer Candy Tycoon over Irish Mias and will use both of the favorites to kick off the late Pick 5.
Race 9: Lake Placid Stakes
It's difficult to defeat Chad Brown in these turf stakes, but Varenka (1) has always hinted at being a good horse for trainer Graham Motion. In her prep race here earlier in the meet, Varenka swung extremely wide turning into the stretch and turned in an eye-catching run to wear down the favorite in the waning strides. Graded-placed as a maiden last year, Varenka only needs some speed to set up her late kick. She's the third choice on the morning line and I would play her to win if she is goes off around her 3 -1 morning line.
I'll key Varenka in the multiples and will use over the two Brown-trained horses in the single-race wagers.
Race 10: Alabama Stakes
Dunbar Road (1) is the morning-line favorite, but she beat up on a weak field last time out and I have some reservations about her ability to handle this distance. Point of Honor (7) shouldn't have any problems with the 1 1/4 miles and she was up against it from a pace standpoint when second to divisional leader Guarana in the Coaching Club American Oaks. After swinging wide into the stretch, she made a bold run at that horse to just fall short. It appears she's coming up to this race the right way and I prefer her to Dunbar Road.
The main opinion here is to fade Dunbar Road, key Point of Honor and use over longer shots like Off Topic (8) and Lady Apple (2).
Good luck today!
