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Keeneland

Illman: How I'll play Keeneland on Sunday, Oct. 16

Dan Illman|Oct 16, 2016

Let's take a look at three of the more competitive races at Keeneland on a stakes-less Sunday afternoon card.

Race 9 - Allowance
1 - CZAR (5 to 1 morning line, 5 to 1 value line)

Most of my Sunday play goes through Czar in the finale. Although only 1 for 12 lifetime, Czar turned things around in his last few starts of 2015. He defeated a couple of next-out winners when graduating from the maiden ranks over this course and distance last fall before catching a tough allowance heat at Churchill Downs over "good' ground. The latter race produced three next-out winners including Street Chief, who then completed a four-race win streak with a subsequent 'n2x' win on dirt at Oaklawn with an 88 Beyer.

Czar went to the sidelines for 10 months, but returned with a good effort at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 3. He showed some fresh speed off the layoff, but was wrangled back into a stalking spot while between horses after the opening quarter. Czar loomed four paths wide into the long straightaway before angling to the inner rail late. Beaten only three-quarters of a length, it was a good return run that should have him primed and ready for today's assignment.

Trainer Ben Colebrook is 9 for 43 (21 percent) with a $2.96 ROI over the past three years with turf routers making the second start following a layoff. Narrowing that Formulator nugget to Keeneland-only racing, Colebrook is 2 for 6 (33 percent). One of those horses, Princess Princess, scored at 21-1 odds.

I'll play Czar to Win at 5 to 1 or greater, and will use in exotics with the newly gelded OLD SPORT (9) and HUSH UP (8).

Race 8 - Optional Claiming
7 - HIP HOP N JAZZ
(3 to 1 morning line, 3 to 1 value line)

Like Czar, Hip Hop N Jazz makes the second start off the bench for a barn that does very good work with the move. Over the past two years, trainer Tom Proctor is 3 for 10 (30 percent) with dirt sprinters in the second race back.

Last year, Hip Hop N Jazz swept through her first two appearances with improving Beyer Speed Figures. In her final start of the year, she placed third in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks, finishing ahead of multiple Grade 1 winner Lovely Maria.

Most recently, she returned from a 435-day layoff with a good runner-up effort at Parx Racing. In that race, she broke inward from the rail and was forced to rally over a speed-friendly track. Hip Hop N Jazz got on track late and galloped out well. The fourth-place finisher from that spot came back to win at Penn National with a 72 Beyer

Hip Hop N Jazz should get some pace to attack in this spot. I'll play her to win at 3 to 1 odds or higher and will use her in multiple- and single-race exotics with CAN'T BE DAZZLED (2) and MOIETY (5).

Race 4 - Allowance
1 - JOCKAMO'S SONG (20 to 1 morning line, (8 to 1 value line)

Perhaps Louisiana-bred Jockamo's Song is merely prepping for the upcoming Fair Grounds meet, but he deserves an upset chance now that heavily favored ALSVID (2) is scratched.

A rock-solid winner of the Costa Rising Stakes sprinting on the turf March 26, Jockamo's Song must deal with a long layoff and some hard-hitting opponents. He is pretty lightly raced, with plenty of upside potential; however, is proven from an inside post position, and should be forwardly placed entering the turn.

I'll play him lightly to Win at 8 to 1 odds or greater. If it doesn't work out today for Jockamo's Song, I will put him on the watch list for an appearance on turf or dirt against Louisiana-breds later this year.

Good Luck!

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