Illman: How I'll play Gulfstream on Sunday, March 20
There aren’t any stakes races on Sunday’s card at Gulfstream Park, but several excellent betting events highlight the program. Here are a few thoughts:
RACE 2
MOOGHAREADH (6) (4-1 morning line, 4-1 value line)
TIME AND MOTION (2) figures to go off favored following a rallying fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, but this will be her first start in almost five months, and her late-running style might not play well in a race lacking serious pace. Plus, the Breeders’ Cup was contested over yielding conditions, and Time and Motion might have moved forward with some give in the ground. She’s definitely usable in multiple-race wagers, but I prefer first-time starter Mooghareadh on the win end.
While Chad Brown’s numbers with older debut runners in maiden special weight turf routes at Gulfstream aren’t Brown-esque (2 for 12 over the past two years, $1.18 ROI), there’s no denying that he’s one of the best trainers on the planet and can certainly get one ready to win right out of the box.
Mooghareadh sold for $675,000 as a yearling and boasts a strong turf pedigree. She’s a full sister to Malibu Pier, a three-time graded stakes winner going long on turf in Southern California. The dam, Blue Moon, grabbed the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap at one mile on the grass.
I’ll make a small win bet on Mooghareadh at 4-1 odds or greater and will use her in the multiples with Time and Motion and RECALIBRATE (9).
RACE 3
PUNTROOSKIE (6) (4-1 morning line, 7-2 value line)
Many handicappers will concede this race to DEFER HEAVEN (3), the dominant winner of the restricted Trust Buster Stakes last month for 29 percent trainer Jorge Navarro. After all, Defer Heaven has won four in a row, and his three recent Beyer Speed Figures of 99, 95, and 90 make him strictly the horse to beat.
Still, Defer Heaven did everything backward in the Trust Buster. He was on his right lead on the turn and his left lead in the stretch, came out of the race to breeze a glacial 53-second half-mile, and is being risked for $62,500 despite sporting figures that would be very competitive in allowance or stakes company.
Perhaps I’m overthinking the race, but I’ll give Puntrooskie a chance to upset the applecart. A stakes-winning sprinter on Polytrack at Woodbine, Puntrooskie has run well at Gulfstream and has faced better horses in recent efforts. Two back, he finished an even fourth behind the streaking X Y Jet. Last time, he was in against Candip (returned to run second in the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Handicap with a 103 Beyer ) and Blofeld (the next-out winner of the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap with a 103 Beyer).
Puntrooskie drew a nice attack post outside and can work out a trip stalking the speeds. I’ll play him to win at 7-2 or better and will use him with BROTHERSOFTHETIME (4).
Race 10
TRY YOUR LUCK (10) (5-1 morning line, 4-1 value line)
PRIVY COUNCIL (1) is doubtlessly the horse to beat based on her 81 Beyer effort on Valentine’s Day, but there’s no guarantee that the Majesticperfection filly will duplicate that sprint effort around two turns. It took her forever to change leads in the stretch that afternoon, and she couldn’t get by the favorite in the stretch.
If the distance is too much for her, you could do worse than Try Your Luck, a filly switching to dirt for the first time. Claimed for $75,000 two back by Mike Maker, Try Your Luck is actually cutting back after an okay third-place finish at nine furlongs. Her pedigree indicates that she might just appreciate the surface change. She’s a half-sister to stakes-placed dirt sprinter High Quality, the dam won her only lifetime start on dirt, and the second dam captured the Grade 3 Golden Rod Stakes.
Try Your Luck gets a small win bet at 4-1 or better. I’ll use her with GAUCHE (4) and A FEW GOOD FRIENDS (5).
Race 11
SHARE THE MUSIC (9) (5-1 morning line, 5-1 value line)
Although Share the Music couldn’t step with SOKIE (8) and TASUNKE (6) in a similar spot Feb. 13, the 5-year-old mare was making her first start since the fall and was spotting fitness to both. She figures to have gained conditioning from that pace-pressing try and can work out a similar trip under Luis Saez here. That 8-1-4-2 lifetime record is unappealing, but she’s still unexposed on turf, and the gamble is that she’ll be tighter in her second start of the form cycle.
I’ll play her to win at 5-1 or better and will use her MOZAMBIQUE GOLD (11).