Illman: How I'll play Gulfstream on Saturday, Dec. 17
There are five stakes races on this afternoon’s card at Gulfstream Park. Let’s take a look at some contenders who might sneak away as overlays on the tote.
Race 5 – Rampart Stakes
CURLIN’S APPROVAL (3) – 5-2 morning line, 3-1 value line
Todd Pletcher usually rules the roost at Gulfstream, and he has two strong contenders here in probable favorite GENRE (6) and Gulfstream-loving ESKENFORMONEY (7). Neither would be a surprise considering their trainer, but I’m concerned about the latter’s form, while Genre might have hit her peak Beyer Speed Figure of 92 when winning a stakes race at Thistledown two starts back.
Curlin’s Approval, on the other hand, is a lightly raced 3-year-old with loads of upside. She returns to her favorite track after a solid fourth-place effort in the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland. She was battling three others for the early lead that day and was still in with a chance before understandably tiring in the final furlong. She might have an easier time getting to the front in this spot, and her pedigree indicates she’ll stay this extra distance.
If the two Pletcher-trained fillies are overbet, Curlin’s Approval looms a curious pace and upside play at 3-1 odds or better. I’ll play her to win at that price and will use her in exotics with Genre and SCREAMING SKYLAR (4), a $200,000 purchase over the summer who just missed last time out at this distance in her return to dirt.
Race 10 – South Beach Stakes
EXCILLY (1) – 6-1 morning line, 6-1 value line
Pletcher also has the likely favorite in the South Beach as SANDIVA (9) drops precipitously in class following nine consecutive graded stakes. The concern with Sandiva is that she hasn’t raced since Saratoga, and it’s possible she won’t be fully cranked for her return to action. She’s the best horse on paper, but I prefer a runner with more recency: Excilly.
A stakes winner in England last year, Excilly was Group 2-placed against males in Dubai during the Carnival meeting earlier in the year. She hasn’t replicated that form just yet in North American for Christophe Clement but had a saddle issue in the De La Rose Stakes before chasing a wicked pace in the Ballston Spa.
It was a bit disappointing, however, that Excilly couldn’t parlay a good pocket trip into victory most recently as the favorite at Belmont. Here’s hoping she gets another good trip from the rail in a race with a decent amount of speed. The slight turnback in distance shouldn’t hinder her as she was a multiple sprint winner overseas.
Excilly is 6-1 on the morning line, and I would need every bit of that price before considering a win wager. In multiple- and single-race exotics, I’ll attempt to beat Sandiva with Excilly, TUTTIPAESI (7), and NECK OF THE MOON (6).
Here are some quick contenders to consider in multiple-race wagers:
Race 4
Vulnerable favorite: STONETASTIC (5)
Top selection: DEAREST (1)
Value play: YOU BOUGHT HER (6)
Race 7
Horse to beat: KEEN ICE (6)
Value play: MADEFROMLUCKY (2)
Race 8
Horse to beat: HEART TO HEART (1)
Value play: SECURITY RISK (2)
Race 11
Horse to beat: LOVE AND LEMONS (10)
Value play: ELITE HEIR (7)
Good luck!
