Illman: How I'll play Belmont for Sunday, Oct. 30
It's a beautiful fall afternoon in New York and there are two interesting stakes on the closing day-card at Belmont.
I'll take a play at the late pick 4 featuring a wide-open edition of the Chelsey Flower Stakes.
Race 6:
HOLIDAY STONE (1) seems like a dangerous contender in the opening leg. Third in his career debut, Holiday Stone earned a competitive Beyer Speed Figure (70) in that race and finished ahead of a next-out winner. His dam was a Grade 1 winner on the lawn. First-time starter CAVIL (7) and dirt-to-turf performer CHENAL (9) are the backups. The latter races with an aluminum pad off for this assignment.
Race 7:
FINAL CHAPTER (6) was a winner the last time he sprinted on the turf. He'll attempt to repeat the layoff pattern that resulted in that 90-Beyer performance for Bill Mott. LATIGO TRAIL (7) drops in class after being used as a pacesetter for Tapitation in the Ashley T. Cole Stakes at Belmont. He's more of a sprinter anyway, and shouldn't be too far away when the real racing begins. BANANA THIEF (4) is consistent enough, might be cycling back to his best effort in the third start back, and can be used as a backup, at the very least, on pick 4 tickets.
Race 8:
I have to use both of the Chad Brown-trained runners in the Chelsey Flower. Preferred play CREATE A DREAM (12) stumbled at the start of her North American debut and was forced to swing widest in the stretch. She tried hard in the lane and can do better with a more alert break. BEAT THE BENCHMARK (4) was pinched in between horses at a critical juncture of the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes. The two Christophe Clement-trained runners also deserve respect. WARRIOR HALL (3), a seven-figure purchase, kicked home nicely to win his maiden after a good inside-out trip. NOBLE READY (8) gave Breeders' Cup-bound Coasted a tussle in the P. G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga.
Race 9:
Don't totally trust morning-line favorite BEA BEA (11), a 10-time loser already, although she does have figs that would make her very tough in this spot. I'll use her along with first-time starter J C MY WAY (8), a turf-bred filly with some quick workouts on the page. CELTIC SERENADE (9) faced a tougher group at Saratoga. This one is lightly raced enough that we can still project improvement.
Here's the Ticketmaker play:
Good luck!