Illman: How I'll play Belmont for Sunday, May 29

Let’s take a look at a few races at Belmont on Sunday. How will I play?

Carefully.

I don’t necessarily love any horses so will try to make lemonade from lemons by sniffing out some overlays in the win pool and playing small multiple-race tickets.

Race 2: This race kicks off the early pick four. Wesley Ward won Thursday’s 2-year-old maiden special weight on turf with the experienced Red Lodge and it appears that third-time starter SPELLKER (6) worked in company with that one at Keeneland on May 22. Spellker burned money in both tries in Kentucky, but has big speed and some turf pedigree as a daughter of the versatile City Zip.

Without access to tote information and paddock analysis, I’ll lean on Spellker, but will also use Todd Pletcher-trained first-time starters BAHAMA HALO (7) and IRON MIZZ (8) as well as EPPING FOREST (5).

Race 5: FOREVER D’ORO (2) is strictly the horse to beat – and a must-use in multiple-race bets – but I will take a small swing against him from a single-race standpoint with TRAVIS COUNTY (3), an $850,000 yearling purchase going out for Kiaran McLaughlin and Godolphin.
A Tapit full brother to Grade 3 winner Cassatt, Travis County is green with upside. He was a handful behind the gate last month and broke slowly, but ran on in the stretch and should handle this extra distance. If Forever d’Oro stubs his toe at short odds, Travis County might be the one to benefit. I would play him at odds of 6-1 or greater.

Race 6: Perhaps FRONT (7) needs a heart transplant. Not only is he winless since the spring of 2014, but he has had his chances only to squander them time and time again. Then again, new trainer David Jacobson has worked miracles before, and it’s interesting that he cuts Front all the way back in distance. He’s a very hard horse to press with, but should get some speed to run at late and has some back races that would be competitive with these.
He’s worth a very small play at odds of 6-1 or greater, and I’ll use him in multis with POLAR AXIS (1), ASSET INFLATION (5), and RUNAWAY POSSE (8).

Race 7: ADIRONDACK LUCK (5) pounded a field of statebreds in her return to New York and can take another for Jimmy Toner despite the class hike. She’ll be the main focus in most of my multiple-race plays and I’ll bet her to win at 5-1 or greater. As backups, I’ll use runners like PUSSY WILLOW (6) and NAKED EMPRESS (1).

Race 8: It’s possible that THREE ALARM FIRE (7) simply can’t run anymore as he has raced twice since April 1, 2015 and has beaten a total of two horses during that span. If you want to be very forgiving, you can say that he didn’t want turf last time and was simply short off the layoff at Gulfstream on Feb. 7. The last two times he raced in one-turn routes, he was third behind Red Vine and Kid Cruz at Aqueduct (4/1/15) and earned a 103 Beyer (10/1/14).

I’m not thrilled about the competition in this optional claimer and Three Alarm Fire has the speed to be close to a moderate pace, if not outright on the lead. He’s worth a small play at 12-1 or greater and I’ll use him in multiple-race bets with the more logical OUR CARAVAN (5).

Good luck!