Illman: How I'll play Belmont for Saturday, May 14

There are four graded stakes on Saturday’s card at Belmont featuring some talented runners. Let’s take a look at some potential plays:

Race 7, Ruffian Stakes
INCLUDE BETTY (2) – 5-1 morning line, 5-1 value line

The two morning-line favorites, CARRUMBA (6) and CAVORTING (1) have some questions to answer. Cavorting, while solid in her last three starts, hasn’t run back to the form that produced three stakes victories over the spring and summer of 2015. Also, the two truly bad races on her record came when stretched out past seven furlongs. Cavorting is a very logical contender in this spot, but she has burned money recently and will be bet hard again.

Carrumba looks like a filly on the rise for trainer Shug McGaughey. Perhaps I’m being a bit greedy, but I expected a whole lot more from Carrumba last month in the Grade 3 Top Flight Handicap. She was 3-5 in a four-horse field yet was all-out to outfinish a dressed-up Mei Ling. Uncharacteristically, she hopped back to her left lead when under a full-out drive in the stretch. Carrumba probably trips out beautifully here as she can stalk moderate fractions while in the clear. Her best race looks good enough.

While I am concerned about the possible lack of pace, I believe that Include Betty might be good enough to overcome. Her most recent start, the Heavenly Prize Stakes at Aqueduct on March 5, was contested over an inner dirt surface with a golden rail. While Include Betty wisely saved ground every step of the way, the track also seemed to favor horses that were close to the pace. Include Betty, as usual, lagged far behind and just couldn’t make up the necessary lengths over that track. For her first start of the year, it was a good stepping-stone to the Ruffian. It is also worth noting that Include Betty’s career-defining moment, a Grade 1 win in the Mother Goose, came in her only other one-turn route appearance.

I’ll bet Include Betty to win at 5-1 or greater and will use her in multiple- and single-race exotics with the two favorites and SPELLING AGAIN (3).

Race 10, Man o’ War Stakes

CAN’THELPBELIEVING (3) – 15-1 morning line, 15-1 value line

It’s a wide-open race with several logical horses, but I’ll take a stab with Can’thelpbelieving, a 5-year-old stretching back out to the distance of an entry-level win at Saratoga a couple of years back. Since being gelded last spring, Can’thelpbelieving hasn’t run a bad one and he was shuffled back a bit going into the first turn of his most recent start, a third-level allowance at Keeneland last month. Can’thelpbelieving angled four wide into the stretch that afternoon and was slowly grinding away at the wire. I believe he wants more distance and can be close to the expected slow pace. Two back, he gave Grand Tito a stiff challenge and that horse has emerged as a legitimate graded stakes threat.

Can’thelpbelieving must prove he’s of this class, but is in good form and will offer juicy odds. I’ll bet him if he goes off at anything higher than 15-1 and will use him exotically with the consistent KAIGUN (7), Chad Brown’s WAKE FOREST (9), and newly blinkered CLOSING BELL (4).

Race 11, allowance

AMAZING ANNE (11) – 3-1 morning line, 7-2 value line

ANCIENT SECRET (4) was certainly impressive in her lone start last year. Perhaps she’s good enough to beat these off a long layoff, but I don’t want to find out at short odds.

Amazing Anne, stakes-placed last year for Tom Morley, doesn’t have the most sterling record, but she was noticeably more professional in her last few races and tried very hard in her seasonal debut on April 6. In that spot, she caught a wet turf course when behind favored Loon River. She galloped out nicely after the race and could be sharper in her second race back.

I’ll play her at 7-2 or greater and will use her with Ancient Secret and LIGHT YEARS AWAY (10), a filly that can be close to the expected moderate pace.

I wish I was more clever in the other two graded stakes races. The ‘A’ race from BALL DANCING (3) would be good enough to win the Beaugay (Race 8), but 2-1 odds or thereabouts aren’t enticing. I think that UNIFIED (7) will get through the Peter Pan, but there are too many questions regarding distance surrounding this potential odds-on favorite to get excited about any single-race wagers.

OFFERING PLAN figures a short-priced contender in the sixth race. He’s returning off a long layoff, though, and could be using this as a prep for bigger and better. I’ll take the smallest of stands against Offering Plan with newly gelded WESTERN RESERVE, who gave odds-on winner Thatcher Street all he could handle at Gulfstream on March 23.

Good luck!