Illman: How I'll play Belmont Park on Saturday, June 18
The Grade 3 Poker Stakes highlights a solid Saturday card at Belmont. Let’s take a look at a few potential plays.
Race 4 – Poker Stakes
FORCE THE PASS (No. 2, 5-1 morning line, 7-2 value line)
Force the Pass showed a good amount of ability and versatility as a 3-year-old last year. After going a bit off form in the late summer, he was sidelined with a minor foot problem and given plenty of time to recuperate by trainer Alan Goldberg.
He returned with a really nice performance in the Grade 3 Appleton Stakes at Gulfstream on April 2. A bit keen off the bench, Force the Pass forced the pace early, battled hard through the turn, and dug in gamely to finish third, beaten only a half-length. Not bad for the first race against older horses, initial start over wet turf, and first race in more than six months The runner-up, Divisidero, came back after his tough Appleton trip to grab the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs with a 103 Beyer Speed Figure.
Goldberg had been trying to get Force the Pass a race before the Poker, but wet weather and an illness sidelined the colt. He appears to be back on track now and can sit a decent stalking trip behind the speedy OBVIOUSLY (3) and KING KREESA (5).
I’ll bet Force the Pass to win at 7-2 or greater, will use him in single-race exotics with Obviously and the sharp TAKEOVER TARGET (6), and will lean on him in the multiple-race wagers (with Obviously and Takeover Target on backup tickets).
Race 6 – Allowance
LOVE YOU BABE (No. 7, 10-1 morning line, 10-1 value line)
Love You Babe is worth a stab in this statebred allowance at a one-turn mile. The two favorites, EMPRESS JINGU (6) and SUPER ALLISON (3), are more likely winners, but they both have holes, and I’m not sure they’re worth the risks at short odds. Empress Jingu owns a competitive Beyer Speed Figure for Todd Pletcher and Javier Castellano but must stretch out after racing greenly in her debut against weaker. Super Allison drops in class after a sneaky-good performance against New York-bred stakes company. The worry is that she is not a good gate horse and often puts herself behind the eight ball with a poor break. Also, this will be the first time she’s stretched out to a mile.
Love You Babe was claimed in April by trainer Emron Ibrahim, who is 7 for 25 (28 percent) with a $4.70 ROI over the past six months. After a pair of turf tries, she was dropped into an open “n2L” claimer and came through with a nice off-the-pace performance.
She’ll have to face better horses on Saturday after that win but gets in light with a capable apprentice rider named. With a little bit of pace to attack, she can threaten for a board position at the very least.
I’ll play her to win at 10-1 or greater and will use her in single-race exotics with the two aforementioned favorites.
I won’t get too clever in some of the other races. U S CITIZEN (No. 11, race 9) drops in class for David Jacobson and can be close to a moderate pace. TIZ TWICE (No. 3, race 7) improved in her first route start and can be a forward factor once again. ZENNOR (No. 6, race 8) is a huge question mark off a long layoff, but he’s run well fresh in the past. If he’s right, he can give a good account of himself, but he’s only raced once since Oct. 26, 2014. Demand some value on this intriguing entrant.
Best of luck!