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Aqueduct

Illman: How I'll play Aqueduct for Saturday, Nov. 19

Dan Illman|Nov 19, 2016

Saturday's Aqueduct card features a Pick 6 carryover of $33,789.82. Let's take a look at a few horses to consider in the sequence.

Race 5 - Notebook Stakes
6 - LA CAT WARRIOR (12 to 1 Morning Line, 8 to 1 WIN Value Line)

I won't argue with anyone that considers the Notebook Stakes, the second leg of the pick six, as a deep spread. Several horses look strong and 2-year-olds often improve significantly from start to start.

In my play, I'll press with two horses and play backup tickets with two others. La Cat Warrior beat a questionable field as a main-track-only entrant in an off-the-turf maiden special weight, but he was extremely professional and pretty fast (82 Beyer Speed Figure). He was flattered somewhat when the runner-up came back to graduate on the turf in his next start.

He'll definitely face tougher competition here and might have to deal with a more difficult pace scenario, but it appears he has some ability and the price should be right. La Cat Warrior is listed at 12 to 1 on the track's morning line and is a viable win candidate at 8 to 1 or greater at post time.

I'll also use the logical GOLD FOR THE KING (9) as an 'A' play on any Ticketmaker bets. I don't think he cared for the wet track last time out and that one-mile distance may have been a bit far for him at this point of his career. He turns back in distance and gets some pace to attack.

My backup plays are CAUGHT A HEATER (5) and HAMPTONS HOLIDAY (10). Pick six investors with deeper pockets might also include TRIBECCA (8) and BOURBON EMPIRE (2).

Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight

1 - YOUR SECRET'S SAFE (3 to 1 Morning Line, 3 to 1 WIN value line)

There appears to be some promising first-time starters in this maiden heat, but I'll take the two proven commodities in the pick six.

Your Secret's Safe adds blinkers for Chad Brown after chasing Remsen-bound runaway winner Mo Town over a sloppy track. He advanced four-wide early on the far turn and was widest swinging into the stretch before finishing evenly.

I am a bit concerned about the distance and inside post and will play him to Win only if he goes off at 3 to 1 odds or greater. In the pick six and other multiple-race wagers, I'll use Your Secret's Safe with OXFORD CIRCUS (12). That one chased the very promising Takaful (also slated for next Saturday's Remsen) in his most recent start.

First-time starters to consider on wider tickets include SKYLER'S SCRAMJET (3), CATEGORY TWO (4) and AMERICAN ROCK SALT (10).

Race 8 - Artie Schiller Stakes

10 - HEART TO HEART (3 to 1 Morning Line, 9 to 2 Win Value Line)

Pace is THE key determining factor to the Artie Schiller.

If you believe that MACAGONE (3) and KING KREESA (7) will push Heart to Heart, then you might want to consider tossing the top pick completely as Heart to Heart just seems weaker when not allowed to control things up front.

Then again, we've seen some strange rides in these two-turn turf routes in New York. If the other jocks hand Heart to Heart the lead, he can make them pay as he's done time and again when given that scenario.

Because I'm not sure how the pace will play out, Heart to Heart becomes a doubtful Win candidate. I have his "fair odds" pegged at 9 to 2 and it's unlikely he'll drift that much off his morning line.

I do have to use him in the pick six and other multiples, but must spread with logical stalkers and closers like JAY GATSBY (1, perhaps the most likely winner), BLACKTYPE (5) and KHARAFA (2).

Good luck!

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