Illman: How I'd play Saratoga on Thursday, Aug. 21
I wasn’t enamored of today’s racing to begin with, and the wet conditions have dampened what little enthusiasm I had for the card. Perhaps the best idea is to stay in bed and snuggle with Saturday’s Travers past performances. Still, in keeping with the spirit that a bad day at the track is better than a good day elsewhere, here are a few tepid opinions.
Today’s featured sixth race is the $100,000 Union Avenue Stakes for statebred fiilies and mares at 6 1/2 furlongs. On paper, the two main contenders are #2 RISKY RACHEL and #3 SUNNY DESERT. Both have performed admirably over wet tracks and both have done well at the Spa.
Of the two favorites, I prefer Risky Rachel, who won the Union Avenue in 2012 before being sidelined for more than a year with a tendon injury. She showed little rust in her first two starts back, taking a pair of stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Three losses followed, however, and there were some handicappers who wondered whether Risky Rachel, now at the ripe old age of 7, had lost a step or three. Her most recent race, a second-place finish behind the Ballerina-bound Willet, allayed my fears. Risky Rachel battled with Atlantic’s Smile, a filly who eventually backed up to finish fifth of six entrants before succumbing to the odds-on winner. She looms the controlling speed in the Union Avenue under Javier Castellano, and I’ll key her in multiple-race wagers.
If Sunny Desert stubs her toe, perhaps #5 UNCLE SOUTHERN can round out the number. The Linda Rice-trained 4-year-old won her most recent start, a sloppy optional claimer here three weeks ago. She could be in closest attendance to Risky Rachel when the real racing begins.
The seventh race is a nine-furlong maiden special weight for older fillies and mares. #1 DRAGONBERRY is the deserving favorite for Pletcher and Castellano following a runner-up effort over the same course and distance Aug. 1. I will take my chances against her, however, with #7 GUILTY VERDICT, a Medaglia d’Oro filly stretching out for Shug McGaughey. Not only does Guilty Verdict receive stamina from her sire, but both her dam and second dam were multiple Grade 1 winners going long on the dirt. Guilty Verdict will make her third start of the year this afternoon and was stuck in among horses for the first five furlongs of her most recent start. She’s no star but shouldn’t be too far off the leaders when the field hits the final turn. I’d play her to win at 5 to 2 or greater and will key her in the multis.
Those looking for a longshot could do worse than #6 ILLAPA, a daughter of Rock Hard Ten trying dirt for the first time. Her dam won six graded races on dirt in her career, including a 101 Beyer Speed Figure performance over muddy going in the Grade 3 Gallant Bloom Handicap at Belmont.