Illman: How I'd play Saratoga on Sunday, July 27

How will I play today?

I will try to beat the morning line favorite, #3 ANTIPATHY, in today's featured ninth race, the Grade 3 Shuvee Handicap at 1 1/8 miles.

Antipathy recently gave a career-best effort in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Handicap on the Belmont Stakes undercard.

Going into the race, many handicappers believed that the Ogden Phipps was a potential "race of the year," a battle of titans with Close Hatches squaring off against Princess of Sylmar and Beholder.

Looking back, perhaps that race wasn't as good as it appeared on paper. While Close Hatches kept up her end of the bargain with a solid victory, Beholder was injured during the running and didn't fire her best shot. Princess of Sylmar, meanwhile, came back to disappoint as a heavy favorite in the Delaware Handicap, falling short to Belle Gallantey, a former claimer that finished fifth in the Ogden Phipps.

Sure, Antipathy was good in the Ogden Phipps, but she was 30-1 that day and should go favored in the Shuvee, her first start at the demanding nine-furlong distance. I have to see her run another big race before I become a believer, especially at a short price.

My top selection is #5 FLASHY AMERICAN, a steady veteran that loves Saratoga, nine furlongs, and a wet track. Second in this race last year, Flashy American exits a third-place finish in the Delaware Handicap. Although she was fatigued in the final sixteenth of a mile, she might have been taken out of her game when forced to press glacial fractions. Flashy American is more of a stalking type than a pace-presser. If #1 SWINGER'S PARTY can keep Antipathy honest in the early portion of the Shuvee, Flashy American may fall into a preferred tracking position under Julien Leparoux.

I would take Flashy American at her 5-2 morning line and key her in multiple-race wagers.

Selections:
1. Flashy American
2. Antipathy
3. Stanwyck

I was hoping to take some swings in the baby races this afternoon, but the heavy rain makes them more unpredictable than usual.

In the third race, I'm somewhat interested in #6 HOPEFAITHJOY, a Todd Pletcher-trained daughter of the red-hot freshman sire Lookin At Lucky. A $270,000 yearling, Hopefaithjoy may want a bit more ground, but her dam loved a wet track, winning the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks with a 98 Beyer over a sloppy oval. Pletcher's numbers are predictably gaudy in these situations with a 37% strike rate and a $2.69 ROI in juvenile maiden special weight dirt sprints at Saratoga over the past five years.

The filly she'll have to beat is #2 SKIPALUTE, who gave a very professional performance in her debut run at Churchill Downs last month for trainer Eddie Kenneally.

I'll play Hopefaithjoy at 3-1 and use both Hopefaithjoy and Skipalute in the multiple-race wagers.

Selections:
1. Hopefaithjoy
2. Skipalute
3. On Oaks Day