Illman: How I'd play Saratoga on Sunday, July 20

How will I play today’s card at Saratoga?

Very carefully.

While it is certainly possible that the track changed overnight, it’s worth remembering that the inside looked like the place to be on the dirt yesterday afternoon.

If that trend continues in the early portion of the Sunday card, be prepared to alter your selections accordingly.

The early pick five is a fun wager, and I’ll try to find some keys in the sequence.

Race 1

A baby race kicks off the pick five, and I’ll use the juveniles from the likely suspects: Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown.

Pletcher sends out #7 SANDLER, a $50,000 yearling by Into Mischief. While there isn’t a ton of pedigree on display, Pletcher dominates in these conditions. According to Formulator, he is 5 for 11 (45 percent, $3.54 ROI) over the past five years with 2-year-old debut runners in statebred maiden special-weight dirt sprints at Saratoga. You don’t want him to knock you out of the wager.

Brown has the morning-line favorite in #6 TAX PACKAGE. By the promising young sire Pioneerof the Nile, Tax Package cost $170,000 as a yearling, and the dam was stakes-placed as a 2-year-old.

I’ll use those two as “A” plays in a Ticketmaker pick five but will also play #8 THIRST FOR GLORY and #1 G R’S GIANT as backups. The former is out of a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Artemis Agrotera, a filly that won her debut by a country mile here last year. G R’s Giant is trained by the underrated Dominick Schettino and lures Javier Castellano.

Race 3

I’m willing to give #3 GATHERING one more chance in this N3X optional claimer on the turf. The last time she tried this 1 1/16-mile distance, she was a rallying winner at Gulfstream. In subsequent one-mile races, she chased Somali Lemonade at Keeneland and had no pace to run at May 21 at Belmont. In her last two races, she may have found longer distances unappetizing.

Here’s hoping that she can sit off the speed of #1 MARIEL N KATHY and get the jump on #5 SCAMPERING and #4 PREMIUM turning for home. I’ll use Gathering as an “A” and Scampering as a backup.

Race 5

The anchor leg of the sequence is the $100,000 Lucky Coin Stakes for turf sprinters, and it features a very fleet 5-year-old in #6 SPRING TO THE SKY. In his most recent start, Spring to the Sky blitzed a field of optional claimers at Belmont and is very much the one to catch and beat. Still, I will try to beat him with his former stablemate, #2 STRONG IMPACT. Strong Impact needs firm ground to succeed, and he didn’t get that kind of footing in his most recent start at Belmont. Two starts back, he rallied from last to upend a stakes field at Monmouth. He has beaten Spring to the Key twice in the past, and I’ll hope he can run him down again today. He’s a strong “A” with Spring to the Sky the backup.

The Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks goes as the featured 10th race and the nine-furlong distance might be the key factor. While #2 UNBRIDLED FOREVER is certainly bred to handle this trip, I know for a fact that #1 STOPCHARGINGMARIA relishes the distance. She has shown the ability to stay close to moderate fractions and is the preferred choice of the two favorites.